Will Emily be a cat 5 at the 5 PM advisorie?

[mike18xx]

Its looks very good now...It looks as good as Ivan.

The core of Emily is very impressive (maybe as much as Ivan), but Ivan's outflow was perfect. http://www.redtailcanyon.com/items/381293.aspx?imageId=219018 There doesn't seem to be much shear around Emily, so she still might make it.

IMO, the shear is still there, it's just hidden beneath the high-altitude veil of the CDO's exhaust. Regardless of that, I assert that Emily, like Mitch (a west-CAR cat-5 in a sheared environment) before her, is now so strong that the inner core is basically unaffected by shear of this level. Already, accessory cells can be seen orbiting under the edge periphery of the CDO, and their blow-off is always outward, so the exhaust is overshooting the highest altitude of the shear, shunting it down into lower levels, where its only effect is to determine arrangement of outrigger feeder convection.

[mike18xx]

She's been going wild all of a sudden. Heck, in my opinion, it would be a surprise if she doesn't become the first Category 5 of the season at 5PM.

Here: http://www.weathermatrix.net/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=1724&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=75, I inquired, two days ago, for reasons why Emily could not become a cat-5, given that, climatology, storms of her intensity (at that time) following her projected track invariably achieved cat-5 status in the Caribbean. Even as early as the 12th, I could smell it coming.

And, as warm as the northwest Atlantic is, we could see an Isabel-like cat-5 out there as well later in the season.

[mike18xx]

5 pm would be the time to do it....assuming Miss Em doesnt start weakening or start a EWRC....

The 12-15 mile-wide eye with "stadium seating" is a pretty stable entity; I don't see any more EWRCs happening in Emily prior to maxing out in the same general vacinity in which Gilbert set his records.

[dhweather]

No - until recon gets back in there, they won't do it.

[Brent]

Since recon won't be back until this evening, I say no. They won't upgrade without recon in there, I would imagine.

If the satellite imagery looks better... I think they will. It was so close at 2pm that ANY intensification on satellite would be a 5.

What are the satellite estimates BTW???

[cycloneye]

Since recon won't be back until this evening, I say no. They won't upgrade without recon in there, I would imagine.

If the satellite imagery looks better... I think they will. It was so close at 2pm that ANY intensification on satellite would be a 5.

What are the satellite estimates BTW???

16/1745 UTC 16.5N 78.0W T6.5/6.5 EMILY -- Atlantic Ocean


Shy from 5.

[jkt21787]

Since recon won't be back until this evening, I say no. They won't upgrade without recon in there, I would imagine.

If the satellite imagery looks better... I think they will. It was so close at 2pm that ANY intensification on satellite would be a 5.

What are the satellite estimates BTW???

16/1745 UTC 16.5N 78.0W T6.5/6.5 EMILY -- Atlantic Ocean


Shy from 5.

Yeah, and there won't be another update on that until after the 5 pm advisory, so 155 will most likely hold.

[HurricaneBill]

I don't think they'll upgrade her without recon. However, if satellite estimates support it, they might. They did upgrade Isabel to Cat 5 based on satellite intensities.

I think they're waiting to see if the pressure drops further.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This storm has gotten stronger. The latest frams of the IR shows that the red has built all the way around the eye again. In the storm is tighting fast. Outflow is shooting out of the northeast like crazy. In the buzz saw is becoming better defined. There is no quastion that she has gotten stronger since 2pm.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[clfenwi]

On the past two days, NHC has adjusted the intensity without current recon observations, once a 5 mph nudge down, the other 5 mph up... unless they see indications to the contrary on satellite, I would think they could infer that the pressure fall is continuing at the 1.5 mb per hour rate...trim that a little to be conservative and you get 934 millibars at 5 PM...do you bump the wind 5mph on that (without the observations to back it up like you did last time (145->150)? If the satellite imagery at 4:30 doesn't show a weakening/eye-wall replacement cycle starting up, then maybe...tough call, that's why the get paid the big bucks

[mike18xx]

No - until recon gets back in there, they won't do it.

If Emily acquires an "off-scale cold" IR doughnut signature, they might; what's interesting is her strength already with less-than basement-level cloud-top temps. Methinks she'll bomb during the over-night diurnal maximum....

[Shoshana]

5 pm Advisory is out

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...16.8 N... 78.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 937 mb.

'shana

[jkt21787]

Not surprised at all it was kept at a 4. People don't understand that the mind thinks something different when hearing "category 5", even though its just 1 mph. NHC doesn't want to upgrade it w/o recon info or satelitte intensity saying it is, then only to have recon go back in a few hours and find out it isn't a 5 at all.

If they find a 5 during the recon soon, they will upgrade it for the 8 pm and most certainly the 11 pm advisory.