H Emily Recon Reports

[Brent]

If this gets over 980 then I will declare storm cancel.

[jkt21787]

ignore him.

[clfenwi]

Observation Number: 25
Time transmitted: 1703Z
Position: 14.4 North // 71.6 West
Sea Level Pressure: 970 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 15 knots // 155
925 millibar height: 418 meters
925 millibar winds: 11 knots // 170
850 millibar height: 1158 meters
850 millibar winds: 6 knots // 180
700 millibar height: 2839 meters
700 millibar winds: 5 knots // 270

EYE 14 42 N 71 64W

[gkrangers]

Looks like the intensity is around 100-105KTS right now, based on the most recent recon passes.

[Scorpion]

Probably 100 knots. 970 mb and a weakening storm.

[Scorpion]

Looks like an eye is coming back though, so maybe the storm is levelling off.

[Thunder44]

URNT11 KNHC 151718
97779 17090 60139 72519 30400 34024 05058 /3131
RMK AF304 0505A EMILY OB 28
INBOUND FROM 45NM SOUTHWEST OF CENTER. RAPIDLY IMPROVING RADAR PRESENTATION

[Brent]

Visible looks a LOT better since that outflow boundary moved away.

[gkrangers]

Looks like an eye is coming back though, so maybe the storm is levelling off.

With the pressure pretty steady over the last few hours, 968, 969, 970..the eye and eyewall have probably been getting their act back together following the possible ERC. The statement above about the radar presentation also supports that.

[jkt21787]

URNT11 KNHC 151718
97779 17090 60139 72519 30400 34024 05058 /3131
RMK AF304 0505A EMILY OB 28
INBOUND FROM 45NM SOUTHWEST OF CENTER. RAPIDLY IMPROVING RADAR PRESENTATION

Interesting. Looks like somewhat of a strengthening could begin. I'm still hesitant of something big given the shear though, but we'll see.

[clfenwi]

looks like they did one last pass through the eye at 1725Z ... sw to ne...might not see vortex and/or dropsonde obs until after 2 PM advisory is released...

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 151741
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/17:25:00Z
B. 14 deg 26 min N
071 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2840 m
D. 65 kt
E. 238 deg 013 nm
F. 333 deg 068 kt
G. 244 deg 007 nm
H. 969 mb
I. 14 C/ 3049 m
J. 16 C/ 3039 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. E11/16/12
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0505A EMILY OB 29
MAX FL WIND 112 KT NE QUAD 14:56:20 Z
BANDING ALL QUADRANTS. INNERMOST CONVECTIVE RING STILL OPEN TO SOUTHEAST

[Brent]

Pressure starting to drop again??? 969

[clfenwi]

VORTEX MESSAGE

Storm EMILY: Observed By AF #304
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 112KT (128.8mph 207.4km/h) In NE Quadrant At 14:56:20 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 100.8KT (115.9mph 186.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: NDING ALL QUADRANTS. INNERMOST CONVECTIVE RING STILL OPEN TO SOUTHEAST
Date/Time of Recon Report: Invalid Date (Invalid Date)
Position of the center: 14° 26' N 071° 49' W (14.4°N 71.8°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2840m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 65 KT (74.75MPH 120.4km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 013nm (14.95miles) From Center At Bearing 238°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 068KT (78.2mph 125.9km/h) From 333°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 007nm (8.0 miles) From Center At Bearing 244°
Minimum pressure: 969mb (28.61in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN SE
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Elliptical , E11/16/12
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

OB time: 1725Z

[mf_dolphin]

I don't know what the margin of error on the readings are but it definitely looks like she's at least leveling off. With the above mentioned "radar signature" comment I would expect Emily to restrengthen. Whether or not it regains it's full former strength is yet to be seen.

[clfenwi]

DROPSONDE OBS

Observation Number: 30
Time transmitted: 1741Z
Position: 14.4 North // 71.8 West
Sea Level Pressure: 969 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 10 knots // 120
925 millibar height: 415 meters
925 millibar winds: 10 knots // 125
850 millibar height: 1550 meters
850 millibar winds: 9 knots // 120
700 millibar height: 2834 meters
700 millibar winds: 9 knots // 155
EYE 1445N 07181W

Observation Number: 31
Time: 1742Z
Position: 14.6 North // 71.7 West
Sea Level Pressure: 985 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: n/a
925 millibar height: 549 meters
925 millibar winds: 105 knots // 085
850 millibar height: 1282 meters
850 millibar winds: 105 knots // 095
700 millibar height: 2936 meters
700 millibar winds: 94 knots // 130
EYEWALL 1460N 07185W

[clfenwi]

Plane is outbound now...mission all but over...next mission is scheduled to launch at 2100Z (5 PM EDT) and enter the storm at 2300Z with a fix scheduled at 0000Z. With Emily moving the way she is (rapidly away from the presumed base), they may have a hard time meeting that schedule...after all, first recon from this flight didn't come in until after 1200Z...

[gkrangers]

Yeah, shes getting into no mans land. Its a long flight from the gulf coast, FL, and St. Croix. Theres no close base.

[clfenwi]

000

URNT11 KNHC 151807
97779 17564 60157 70508 30400 14041 08058 /3163
41235
RMK AF304 0505A EMILY OB 32
105NM NORTHEAST OUTBOUND


000

URNT11 KNHC 151820
97779 18144 60158 69309 70000 14030 64668 /5762
RMK AF304 0505A EMILY OB 33
LAST REPORT

thathatha that's all folks...until this evening...

[cycloneye]

Thank you for all the work today.See you again this evening.