Emily is being written off....

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Comanche
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Emily is being written off....

#1 Postby Comanche » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:22 pm

for a gulf storm north of about browsville now by energy companies as whole complex is getting whacked.

crude down $2.61, natural gas down $0.20 and unleaded down $0.08 (don't expect your pump price to fall fast on the way down even though they raise it as fast as the futures run up)
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gkrangers

#2 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:23 pm

GOOD.
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Re: Emily is being written off....

#3 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:25 pm

Comanche wrote:for a gulf storm north of about browsville now by energy companies as whole complex is getting whacked.

crude down $2.61, natural gas down $0.20 and unleaded down $0.08 (don't expect your pump price to fall fast on the way down even though they raise it as fast as the futures run up)


These days, you could pretty much make a living trading oil and gas futures based on the hurricane season.
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#4 Postby Cape Verde » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:31 pm

There are plenty of oil and gas facilities in the Bay of Campeche. Any production that gets knocked offline anywhere in the world has a global impact. Less so with natural gas than with oil, though.
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#5 Postby Swimdude » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:33 pm

As long as it takes less for a tank of gas, I can't complain.
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#6 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:56 pm

Swimdude wrote:As long as it takes less for a tank of gas, I can't complain.


Neither can I my friend. Neither can I.

<RICKY>
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#7 Postby The Big Dog » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:00 pm

Oh man... I'm gonna take a drubbing today in the market. Most of the driller stocks are down 2-3%. Can't complain much though -- FSESX has done well for me lately.
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#8 Postby wlfpack81 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:42 pm

As I mentioned in another thread se-ern Texas still isn't out of the woods even if this storm were to take the NHC track all the way (which by extrapolation past the 5 day track would place landfall in n-ern Mexico). With a track like that surge into extreme se-ern Texas could still occur since they'd be on the n-ern side (right quad relative to wnw movement) of the storm. Also any rigs off shore se-ern Texas or just north of the Bay of Campeche could still experience decent squalls not to mention a nice batch of e-ly to se-ly swells from Emily so production could still be disrupted in these areas.
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#9 Postby Nimbus » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:54 pm

With the current forecast traders that had long positions are trying to get out early before the weekend.
Friday is usually the most volatile day of the week so I guess they think they are being smart getting out early.
The NHC is usually very conservative with track changes so nobody is very worried about a surprise tomorrow in the pits.
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#10 Postby Comanche » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:16 pm

look for a short covering rally tomorrow going into the weekend, especially if models starts trending a little more north on the coastline overnight. i have a gut feeling that corpus is going to get this one.
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Scorpion

#11 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:17 pm

I have a gut feeling its coming to Cuba.
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#12 Postby southerngale » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:26 pm

Scorpion wrote:I have a gut feeling its coming to Cuba.


Coming to Cuba? Are you in Cuba? :P
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#13 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:29 pm

Scorpion wrote:I have a gut feeling its coming to Cuba.


Oh come on, Cuba...not in a million years. Just kidding. Your gut is entitled to its own opinion. My gut says enchiladas....
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#14 Postby Comanche » Thu Jul 14, 2005 11:14 pm

funny thing, with the big energy complex selloff today on disounting production disruption, the market is trading much higher in the overnight session as the models have shifted north. be long, buy early and often!
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