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Dennis' early arrival is an unsettling rarity in hurricane season

It's only fourth major to strike U.S. in July

By Maya Bell
Orlando Sentinel

MIAMI · When a weakened but still mighty Hurricane Dennis slammed into the Panhandle's Santa Rosa Island on Sunday, it joined an elite corps, becoming one of only four major hurricanes to make landfall in the United States in July.

Since 1900, only one other major hurricane had an earlier July arrival than Dennis, an unnamed storm that struck Louisiana on July 5, 1916. And, as luck would have it, one of the other major July storms struck -- where else? -- in the Florida Panhandle in 1936, just east of where Dennis came ashore.

Major storms, those classified as Category 3 or above with winds of 111 mph or more, are rare enough events, making up only 21 percent of all hurricanes that make landfall in the United States. But those coming so early in the six-month hurricane seasons are even rarer. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions usually just aren't that favorable for intense hurricane formation.

In Dennis' case, Caribbean and Gulf waters are warmer than usual and other conditions were almost perfect, nearly producing the first Category 4 hurricane ever to hit the Panhandle.

Fortunately, though, Dennis' winds, which climbed to 135 mph Saturday afternoon, plummeted to between 115 mph and 120 mph just before landfall, taking it down a notch to Category 3 strength.

Hurricane forecasters can't be sure until they analyze other contributing factors, but they suspect the same pool of shallow and relatively cooler water in the northern Gulf that sucked a little wind out of Hurricane Ivan last year, likewise dropping Ivan to a Category 3 just before it made landfall about 45 miles west of where Dennis came ashore.

Just how big a difference that made to shell-shocked Panhandle residents is relative. As Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center noted, the difference between a Category 3 and a Category 4 storm is "like the difference between getting run over by an 18-wheeler and a freight train."

And, surely today, Pensacola-area residents must be feeling like they got hit by both after being the target of two major hurricanes within 10 months. That, too, is a rarity.

During last year's unprecedented hurricane season that brought four hurricanes to Florida shores, Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne made landfall within just three weeks and less than five miles of each other last year in Southeast Florida. But only Jeanne was a major storm.

"Two major hurricanes in the same area in 10 months is pretty remarkable," Mayfield said. "I can't remember two major hurricanes this close."

Even before making landfall, Dennis was one for the record books. With Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy before it, Dennis rounded out the quartet of the four earliest named storms on record. It's also the earliest major storm to strike Cuba.

Cuba, which took a prolonged and deadly beating by Dennis last week, also played an unwitting role in Dennis' surprising revival, according to Dave Nolan, a meteorologist who specializes in hurricane intensity at the University of Miami.

Early Saturday, forecasters were heartened that Dennis had weakened to a Category 1, bearing winds of just 90 mph, after emerging from Cuba. They hoped Dennis would not have enough circulation, or time, to recover significantly before crossing the Gulf coast.

But it did, and Nolan credits Dennis' small eye, which was just nine miles across at landfall. The smaller the core of a hurricane, the faster it can reorganize after being disrupted by a landmass such as Cuba.

And, according to Nolan, the eye wall stayed taut because it never went through an eye-wall replacement cycle typical when hurricanes rapidly intensify as Dennis did, reaching a Category 4 with winds of 150 mph before striking Cuba.

The reason? That happens over water and when Dennis was ready to undergo its eye-wall replacement, it hit the impoverished island.

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Cyclical changes in conditions make this year as busy as '04

What's with all the storms in this still-young hurricane season? It is anything but happenstance. Warm waters and atmospheric conditions are to blame.

BY DAVID OVALLE

dovalle@herald.com

Another day, another storm.

Just one day after Hurricane Dennis swept ashore in the Florida Panhandle, Tropical Storm Emily was born in the mid-Atlantic and was headed Tuesday for the Caribbean Sea.

Forecasters say cyclical changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions -- including weaker wind shear and unusually warm water in the Atlantic -- are helping make the start of this hurricane season as busy as last year's.

Emily became the fifth named storm of the season, marking the first time that so many have developed by early July. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

''Not only is it unusual, it's unprecedented,'' said James Franklin, a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center in west Miami-Dade.

That doesn't mean four hurricanes will hit Florida -- but it can't be ruled out.

''Like we've always said, whether it is an active season or an inactive season, you've got to be prepared and keep your eyes on the the sky,'' said Kim Brabander, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

After a 23-year lull, researchers say the cycle of tropical-storm activity shifted in 1995 to a hyperactive period that could last another two or three decades.

Before this season began, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms, with seven to nine that could grow into hurricanes. Three to five of those hurricanes, they said, are likely to become intense.

Dennis peaked as a strong Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds.

That storm was reason for concern, said Stanley Goldenberg, a researcher with NOAA's Hurricane Research Division on Virginia Key.

Dennis was born July 4 from a ``tropical wave''-- a wind disturbance that originates in Africa and usually spawns most major hurricanes.

''Dennis is the key; it's saying the conditions are ripe,'' he said. ``Since 1995, all the years that have had a system in that area [this early in the season] have been extremely active.''

The last time five named storms formed by the end of July was in 1997, which turned out to be a relatively quiet season. Hurricane Danny clipped Alabama on July 18.

One important difference between the years: In 1997, many of the storms tended to form in more northern waters in the Atlantic and did not make landfall.

Hurricane Bill, the third named storm in 1997, reached hurricane status on July 12, but curved northward and died in the cold waters off Newfoundland.

In contrast, the third named storm this year, Tropical Storm Cindy, swept the upper Gulf Coast with heavy rain and gusty winds.

From 1995 to 2003, many storms tended to veer northward away from Florida. But last year, a southerly shift in a massive high-pressure system known as the Bermuda High blocked some tropical storms and hurricanes, funneling them toward Florida and the Southeast coast.

That appears to be continuing this year.

So far, vertical wind shear -- the winds that can sometimes rip up a storm before it intensifies -- has been weaker.

The storms also have been fueled by the unusually warm waters of the Atlantic this July. Goldenberg speculated that lower-level winds known as tradewinds also are weaker, allowing the water to warm up.

He called these early conditions an anomaly. He cautioned that the early July activity would not necessarily continue at this pace.