AFD San Juan about effects from bands in Puerto Rico

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...CURRENT SALIENT FEATURES INCLUDE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EAST
AND ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH CAROLINA AND A LOW THAT SITS NEAR 31
NORTH 47 WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TROUGHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY BEHIND HURRICANE EMILY
AND THEN THE TROUGH WILL CROSS OVER PUERTO RICO IN A MUCH WEAKENED
STATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA BEGINNING
NEXT WEEK. AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK A WEAK LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD HISPANIOLA.

AT MID LEVELS...AN EAST-WEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A
TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN STRETCHES FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO 25
NORTH...NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND AFTERWARD THE PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES TO TRAVEL WEST IN A FAST
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
WEST NORTH WEST SOON AND IN FIVE DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
IS THEN PULLED UP BEHIND THIS WAVE FROM SOUTH AMERICA THURSDAY IN A
NARROW BAND THAT IS FOLLOWED BY A PATCH OF MUCH DRIER AIR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 06Z SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST PROFILE OF RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
INCREASING UP TO A MAXIMUM OF 36 KNOTS NEAR 850-825 MB. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WAS 2.08 INCHES. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO CREATE THE RIGHT
WIND FLOW AROUND HURRICANE EMILY. THE 06Z SOUNDING SHOWED WINDS TO
BE EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE BUT MODELS ARE RELUCTANT TO BRING
WINDS ANY FURTHER AROUND THE COMPASS TOWARD SOUTH THAN JUST DUE
EAST. ALSO WITH 36 KNOTS OF WIND BETWEEN 5 AND 6 THOUSAND
FEET...SOME WIND WOULD BE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
FOR NOW WILL RAISE WINDS ONLY IN ISOLATED SECTIONS OF THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO AND NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO BRING SOME OF THESE WINDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF VERY STRONG GUSTS SO WILL KEEP
GUST GRIDS FAIRLY HIGH IN FORECAST.

EMILY APPEARS TO BRING UP MORE MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA ON FRIDAY
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALMOST AS
HIGH AS TODAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN MUCH DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY THEN A
WEAK WAVE APPEARS TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UNTIL THE DRYER AIR
RIDES THROUGH PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY. MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE MODELS
ARE PROBABLY NOT RELIABLE AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS SEEM TO BE PULLING EMILY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE TPC
HURRICANE TRACK IS INDICATING...AND EMILY DOES SEEM TO BE HOLDING
MORE WESTERLY THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING...THEREFORE WILL KEEP SEAS
BELOW MODEL FORECASTS WITH NO CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHTS FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE MOIST SOUNDING IS VERY LIKELY TO TRIGGER MORE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO RICO...BUT CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
QUICKLY...SO ONLY TRAIN OR STREAMER EFFECTS WILL CAUSE FLOODING
TODAY. BUT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE STILL POSSIBLE
CONSIDERING THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR SOME AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH COAST FOOTHILLS. FOR
SAN SEBASTIAN...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS THEN ONE HALF INCH IN
ONE HOUR AND LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES IN SIX HOURS. CIALES IS IN A
SIMILAR...THOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER SITUATION. THEREFORE THINK IT
ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER ALL BUT ZONES 3, 10, AND 11
UNTIL 5 PM AST. HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY.



A cloudy and rainy day extending into tonight and part of friday as the hurricane throws bands to the NW towards Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.Also winds will increase in the higher elevations.

[caribepr]

Right now all is calm and all is bright (sun reflecting off the water beating my eyes up). Poor Tobago

[cycloneye]

Right now all is calm and all is bright (sun reflecting off the water beating my eyes up). Poor Tobago

Right now it is cloudy with light rain.During the overnight hours it did not rained hard after that big line crossed last night.

[knotimpaired]

Our rains ended last night but we still are hearing the Coqui's and bird's that are affected by the rains..

Our Patronales, Patron Saints Festival , starts tomorrow and we thank our Patron Saint that Emily has bypassed us. (so far)

We will be there, walk in the water backwards, and hope this brings us good luck. This is a Puerto Rico custom that we enjoyed at the end of June on the big island but now I think we need it here.

I can not stress more to our islands. We are here for you and do not hesitate to contact us. We all knew when we moved here we were in a zone that could make us vulnerable, but we never want to see it at our doorstep.

You can contact us at:

787-741-1256
787-556-9489
410-474-2417

For SSB users we are WDB9819 and will monitor channel 14.986.99.

We will keep it on between the hours of 6 a.m to 10 a.m. then again from 2 p.m. till 6 p.m.

We will continue to monitor it 24/7 in the event of an immediate storm but hope those that see this will contact us with family info, etc, so we can call and let them know you are ok.

We are willing to absorb all costs so your family can stay in constant contact with your wellbeing.

Karen & Lee