11:30 TWO=Still Potential for TD to form

[cycloneye]

629
ABNT20 KNHC 131515
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM EMILY...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD WARMER WATERS OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN



A little downturn in the language.

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, the system is traversing over relatively cooler waters. I would change the wording a little bit: As it moves west-northwestward over warmer waters. The system is now over 80* SSTs, but as it moves WNW it will encounter 82-84* and UL winds are expected to remain favorable, so development appears likely...

The strong wave behind it doesn't have much chance anytime soon because it is higher in latitude and will move over cooler waters over the next few days. Once, it heads west of 40W, we will have to watch it...

[Hyperstorm]

I want to add that if the wave moving off Africa is pushed WSW over warmer waters by the Strong Azores High, then there's a chance of development. Another possibility (which I doubt will happen), is that a new LOW develops further south near southern part of the convection cluster.

[wx247]

I am just not jumping on the development chain with 99L. It just doesn't look organized enough yet. It looks better right now than it did earlier, but it still doesn't look as good as yesterday IMHO.

[Hyperstorm]

I am just not jumping on the development chain with 99L. It just doesn't look organized enough yet. It looks better right now than it did earlier, but it still doesn't look as good as yesterday IMHO.

The system is fairly well-organized. What happens is that the system is rather small, it doesn't have any banding, and is devoid of significant convection. Once it starts to acquire some banding and convection strengthens near the LLC, it will take-off. There is really nothing to stop it from developing anytime soon.

[wx247]

Agreed, but right now... with that lacking, I just don't see it developing by this afternoon like some believe it will. I think NHC has it pegged. Slow development is possible, but I don't see an imminent TD threat here.

[cycloneye]

I want to add that if the wave moving off Africa is pushed WSW over warmer waters by the Strong Azores High, then there's a chance of development. Another possibility (which I doubt will happen), is that a new LOW develops further south near southern part of the convection cluster.

That possibilitie is a good one as I see convection concentrated down around 10-13n so we have to watch that.

[HURRICANELONNY]

According to the 2:00 discussion there is no low located on that wave anymore. If that is true were finally getting back to a more normal July and I need a rest.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE SHOWS UP CLEARLY ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10
TO 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS
NOT APPARENT ANY MORE. THE 13/0900 UTC QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED NO
CLOSED CENTER ANY MORE IN THE WIND FIELD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 34.5W
AND 36W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTLY IN THE ITCZ...FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W.

[gkrangers]

The one behind it does tho!