Anyway, the real reason for the post. I guess this is pretty obvious, but basic rundown of our new depression.
1. Shear is low: again we have have a system that will run through mostly 5-10kt vertical shear. On the flip side, there might be too little shear for maximum intensification (flow to improve outflow/inflow dynamics, specifically)
2. We all know SSTs are sufficient; that's not even an issue.
3. It's not moving fast; that may be helpful for the storm.
4. There's a pocket of dry air in front of TD Five. (No I'm not obsessed with dry air today, but hey...
So immediate concern is that dry air. Of course, we've got to get the thing organized first, and we'll probably see that in the next 24 hours. Interesting, just for kicks, check the moisture content of the air, 40/50mm-ish; it may be awhile before this thing does alot really quickly.
Scott




