model trends and landfall

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docjoe
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Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 10:42 pm
Location: SE Alabama..formerly the land of ivan and dennis

model trends and landfall

#1 Postby docjoe » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:43 pm

The local mets here in Pensacola seem to indicate the models are shifting west towards MS/AL line. However the 5PM NHC discussion seems to say just the opposite to me.....HELP!!! I am now confused!!!! :D :D


I EXPECT DENNIS TO RESUME A NORTHWEST MOTION OF 320 TO 325 DEGREES. THE NEW 18Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE CONVERGENT AND IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AREA. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT
...OR EAST OF LOUISIANA...AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS 3 NHC FORECAST TRACKS. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
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