How's this for a NW jog?

[MannyG]

If it keeps up this wobble Key West could be doomed!

Despite wobble/movement Key West is not doomed. In fact, looking at the upper air conditions they are looking better. The high appears to be building ever so slightly to the west & the SW to NE flow at the end of the high that was apparent earlier is disappating. I still think Mobile or Florida Panhandle as far as the end result.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[gatorcane]

this ridge has to push in WNW at some point, doesn't it? Is the ridge weakening?

[MannyG]

this ridge has to push in WNW at some point, doesn't it? Is the ridge weakening?

Yes, the ridge should push Dennis WNW at some point. I'm no expert. Far, far, far from it. I don't know if the southern edge of the high is weakening but I can tell that the high is building ever so slightly to the west. I believe this is the reason behind the models changing.

[chris_fit]

If it keeps up this wobble Key West could be doomed!

Despite wobble/movement Key West is not doomed. In fact, looking at the upper air conditions they are looking better. The high appears to be building ever so slightly to the west & the SW to NE flow at the end of the high that was apparent earlier is disappating. I still think Mobile or Florida Panhandle as far as the end result.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Also what appears to be a trough coming in from the western gulf.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[MannyG]

Also what appears to be a trough coming in from the western gulf.

The trough is definitely a new player in the game. Seems to be charging hard. Should be interesting to see what happens when it meets up to the high building westward. I think Dennis will end up between those features, where that will be I have no clue.

[TampaFl]

After watching what some said was a wobble last year for Charley turn into a TURN, I won't feel good until Dennis is north of my latitude. (And then I won't feel "good" because somewhere, someone is going to get clobbered.)

Agree with you Terry. The rule of thumb I was always taught was that any time you have a system of any strentgh to you SE, S, or SW and moving in your general direction, untill it is past your latitude you need to pay very close attention.

Robert

[chris_fit]

Also what appears to be a trough coming in from the western gulf.

The trough is definitely a new player in the game. Seems to be charging hard. Should be interesting to see what happens when it meets up to the high building westward. I think Dennis will end up between those features, where that will be I have no clue.

Not only is it a new player... the Ridge is retreating/getting weaker over FL.... Look at the higher cloud tops over FL, they were moving E to W yesterday.. they are moving NW now.

[wxwatcher91]

by the looks of the recent jog north, Dennis will definitely strike east of the Florida/Albama border

are they evacuating Louisiana??? I would say Dennis is gonna strike over 200 mile east of Louisiana... they might get a shower

[frankthetank]

Off subject a little, but does Florida plan on ever fixing the station in the Dry Tortugas? THat i believe Charley took care of (or was it Ivan?)??

Buoy 42003 is the one to watch

[vbhoutex]

I do not see the ridge lifting E or weakening in the sat loop, but, it is not building West either. An ULL to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula and the ridging and troughing over the Western GOM will keep this an "Eastern" GOM hurricane IMO. Looks to me like NHC has a very good handle on the track. I am hoping the intensity estimates are too high and that the warm layer in the GOM where Dennis traverses to landfall is very shallow and will lead to some loss of intensity.

[chris_fit]

Satellite, Radar, and now Position fix confirm more N than W in last few hours....

Adv: 20.9N 79.5W
Latest Recon: 21.5N 79.8W

[jdray]

I do not see the ridge lifting E or weakening in the sat loop, but, it is not building West either. An ULL to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula and the ridging and troughing over the Western GOM will keep this an "Eastern" GOM hurricane IMO. Looks to me like NHC has a very good handle on the track. I am hoping the intensity estimates are too high and that the warm layer in the GOM where Dennis traverses to landfall is very shallow and will lead to some loss of intensity.

Clouds are moving to the east here now.

Was SW to NE yesterday.

[gkrangers]

Is it possible to not adjust the track with every wobble?

Soon those on the SE FL coast will be saying its gonna make landfall near them...

[Steve]

>>are they evacuating Louisiana??? I would say Dennis is gonna strike over 200 mile east of Louisiana... they might get a shower

They have to because of the time it takes to get people out and the lack of E-W thoroughfares. What should take about an hour (New Orleans - Baton Rouge) takes as long as 8 hours during the gridlock of evacuations along with cars overheating, running out of gas and stuff which compounds the problem. The only way the feasibility study showed they could do it was in phases. Phase I is outside the hurricane levees and is extreme South LA. These people are told to evacuate 50 hours prior to the onset of Tropical Storm winds. The Phase II area is a bit north of there in South LA which kicks in 40 hours prior to tropical storm winds. If they call a Phase III, then "contraflow" kicks in whereby the east and westbound lanes and north and southbound lanes of the various interstates all go in one direction and you can't get off for a long, long time. So if there is even a shot at a threat, that's the only way they can get people out of the lowlying areas. No doubt there will be a lot of false alarms over the years, but that's the way it has to be.

Steve

[TSmith274]

>>are they evacuating Louisiana??? I would say Dennis is gonna strike over 200 mile east of Louisiana... they might get a shower

They have to because of the time it takes to get people out and the lack of E-W thoroughfares. What should take about an hour (New Orleans - Baton Rouge) takes as long as 8 hours during the gridlock of evacuations along with cars overheating, running out of gas and stuff which compounds the problem. The only way the feasibility study showed they could do it was in phases. Phase I is outside the hurricane levees and is extreme South LA. These people are told to evacuate 50 hours prior to the onset of Tropical Storm winds. The Phase II area is a bit north of there in South LA which kicks in 40 hours prior to tropical storm winds. If they call a Phase III, then "contraflow" kicks in whereby the east and westbound lanes and north and southbound lanes of the various interstates all go in one direction and you can't get off for a long, long time. So if there is even a shot at a threat, that's the only way they can get people out of the lowlying areas. No doubt there will be a lot of false alarms over the years, but that's the way it has to be.

Steve

No, these are voluntary evacuations of low-lying areas. Pretty good move, IMO. A hurricane with 150mph winds can strike anywhere along the gulf coast and still cause problems for those low-lying communities.

[Steve]

Well I knew that Jefferson Parish called for a voluntary and were taking some bashing from WWL 870's hosts, but what those hosts are not realizing is that our people bear the burden (sp?) of everyone else passing through on both the east and west banks. I think President Broussard made the right call in recommending people get out earlier.

Steve