It's already trending east of the NHC track

[logybogy]

Click where it says Trop Fcst Pts to get the NHC coordinates overlayed on the map. You can see the eye is trending north and east of the 11am coordinates. It looks like it is going to make landfall and brush up against the very eastern tip of cuba and then go over the water again and parallel the coast for a bit before going inland.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Agua]

Click where it says Trop Fcst Pts to get the NHC coordinates overlayed on the map. You can see the eye is trending north and east of the 11am coordinates. It looks like it is going to make landfall and brush up against the very eastern tip of cuba and then go over the water again and parallel the coast for a bit before going inland.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I don't know about your prediction as to future movement, but it is presently north and east of the forecasted track.

[tim_in_ga]

Also looks like a second eyewall forming.

[Scott_inVA]

TPC will indeed jog the 5PM EDT Forecast Advisory very slightly to the east.
I caution against overreacting...EVERY hurricane will shift as it rides around a Ridge.

As a service, I copied this morning's TPC/NHC forecast analysis to the public side of the site (this is current as of Thursday morning):

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/st ... cplots.png

Pretty close so far.

Far more important than a slight eastward component the last few hours is the CMC. My concern remains it's been most consistent in its' forecast track and this may be one of those TCs it is accurately figuring our Ridge weakness.
Disquieting is the fact the EC has been moving east and if it and the GFS continue the trend I think the alarm bells will start going off.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm