MW Where Art Thou?
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
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WeatherEmperor
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- Location: South Florida
Morning!
Just looking at the latest available visible imagery (and the IR imagery from over night) it looks like Dennis is rambling northwest. This could be an interaction issue with the high-terrain surrounding the hurricane on 3 sides...and not a true motion. It still looks like the northern coast of Jamiaca is going to get raked.
I think the next set of model runs...both today and tonight...are going to be critical. There was some concern that the GFS and perhaps NOGAPS had been altered by the synoptic drop data last night...however...with the NW jog overnight perhaps the models are on to something. This may take a track a bit closer to the western FL coast than originally thought. Looking at the pattern there is some energy diving into the base of the trough draped over the Gulf (thunderstorm complex heading SE over N Texas)...the trough should still begin to lift out in another 24 to 36 hours...but...
The GFS model, and it's underlings (all of the BAMS, LBAR etc) have shifted to the east a bit especially early on...and with the new initial motion of 305/12...the track models at 12Z have come to the right for the duration. Just saw the latest GFDL guidance...also well to the right.
Not much more time to comment now but I will get something out there once the 12Z guidance starts rolling in.
PS...having a hard time seeing updated satellite imagery...looks like a work-related connection problem.
MW
Just looking at the latest available visible imagery (and the IR imagery from over night) it looks like Dennis is rambling northwest. This could be an interaction issue with the high-terrain surrounding the hurricane on 3 sides...and not a true motion. It still looks like the northern coast of Jamiaca is going to get raked.
I think the next set of model runs...both today and tonight...are going to be critical. There was some concern that the GFS and perhaps NOGAPS had been altered by the synoptic drop data last night...however...with the NW jog overnight perhaps the models are on to something. This may take a track a bit closer to the western FL coast than originally thought. Looking at the pattern there is some energy diving into the base of the trough draped over the Gulf (thunderstorm complex heading SE over N Texas)...the trough should still begin to lift out in another 24 to 36 hours...but...
The GFS model, and it's underlings (all of the BAMS, LBAR etc) have shifted to the east a bit especially early on...and with the new initial motion of 305/12...the track models at 12Z have come to the right for the duration. Just saw the latest GFDL guidance...also well to the right.
Not much more time to comment now but I will get something out there once the 12Z guidance starts rolling in.
PS...having a hard time seeing updated satellite imagery...looks like a work-related connection problem.
MW
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