Question regarding Dennis...(versus Ivan/Charley's paths)

[dolphinslady]

I'm sitting here looking at the paths of the 2004 storms and I know someone here can help me out.

It seems as though Dennis may take on a similar path as Ivan travelled last year, but not as dramatic as Charley.

My question is what caused Ivan to make the turn north? And also Charley, such a strong turn back to the NE? It just seems once storms hit the GOM, they tend to take on a northernly track instead of continuing on their original ENE tracks.

The consensus seems to have Dennis taking a turn north, it's just a matter of when he will. What is going to affect this turn?

Thanks!
Cheryl

[Rainband]

Upper level disturbance may weaken the high.

[Brent]

Cindy may also leave a weakness which would tend Dennis more northward at some point.

[dhweather]

Seeing how things "fill in" behind Cindy will be crucial in Dennis' path.

[ncweatherwizard]

Well with Ivan, you might remember how the models kept calling for a northwestward turn and they kept going farther and farther west. In that case, we already had a ridge in place that was building to the west as the storm was moving west-northwestward. The question was when would Ivan reach a weakness in the ridge and turn northward. In this case, Dennis is already moving more sharply northward than Ivan, and ridging is already weakened somewhat. The question here lies in when the ridge will build back in and push Dennis more westward than northward. The earlier it happens the farther west Dennis will go; of course the later it happens, the farther east Dennis will make landfall in the US. Charley was turned eastward by strong troughing in the US, and this is not going to be the case with Dennis. Hope that's a good answer. [/i]