TD4 - Favorable Environment Ahead

[MWatkins]

Looking at the latest vapor imagery there are a few things to note:

1. There is NO concern for dry air working into the system. The moisture envelope extends 600 NM on either side of the depression and dry is not going to be a concern for the next 3 days at least.

2. The upper environment looks very favorable. As the 11PM notes...the upper high may even be too large to effectively evacuate mass in the early going. But overall, the concern for intensification may very well increase if the system can get mass evacuated effectively.

3. Looking at the vapor imagery...it almost looks like a mid/low level trough is connecting the flow from the Yucatan up to the panhandle of FL..and TD3 appears...almost...to be embedded into it. Going to be interesting to see how this evolves in the next few days.

4. Aw come on...we know SST's are up there to support intensification.

So the real and only inhibiting factors I see...for development are:

1. Proximity to land. Initially to S America. Then the problem becomes the rugged terrain of Hispanola or Eastern Cuba.

2. Inner core organization as the system spins up...these dynamics are not well understood...but initially the center looks like it's coming together nicely.

3. The ability of the upper flow to evacuate mass in the early going.

Initially...it looks like the intensity forecast may be a bit conservative.

MW