530 AM TWOAT

[senorpepr]

ABNT20 KNHC 030911
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR LONGITUDE 86W. THIS SYSTEM
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SQUALLS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would say a depression could develop over the next 12 hours. But afterwards the Yactan should stop development of the system intill the system makes it back into the Gulf of Mexico. Because how can a cyclone form over land?

[HURAKAN]

how can a cyclone form over land?

LIKE THIS .....



OR LIKE THIS .....



And many other examples, fo course, no one is expecting this to become OPAL!

[senorpepr]

Personally, I don't think it will develop until it enters the GOM.

I'm not trying to put words in the mouth of the NHC, but I also read the TWO as such...

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

If they were expecting development prior to landfall in the Yucatan, they would have used the words... A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY...

Also, if the wave is going to be over land... keep in mind that the Yucatan is, on average, 200 miles wide. If it remains on the same motion of 13 mph, it will take roughly 15-16 hours to cross the peninsula. If that's the case, I doubt recon will head out today.

That's just my two cents...

[Nimbus]

The storm should have a clear enough LLC before it crosses the Yucatan to classify it as a depression.

The morning visibles should be interesting.

because of the time spent over land I doubt this can develop into a named storm before tuesday though.

[mobilebay]

Well TAFB is now analyzing a low in the area. We shall see.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif

[senorpepr]

At 6Z (2am EDT) the position was 175 mi from land. At the estimated motion of 13 mph, this puts it over land in about 13 1/2 hours (roughly 3:30pm EDT). I highly doubt they'll upgraded this storm prior to a Yucatan landfall without recon. Recon is scheduled to make a fix on 96L at 4pm EDT or 30 minutes after the estimated landfall. In that case, I wouldn't be too surprised if recon is cancelled, unless the system slows and/or changes course.