HPC discussion of Caribbean system this morning 7/2/05

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cycloneye
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HPC discussion of Caribbean system this morning 7/2/05

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2005 6:06 am

..SOUTHEAST WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH...ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE CARRIES A TROPICAL SYSTEM NWD EITHER NEAR OR ONTO THE CTRL/ERN GULF COAST THIS PERIOD. THE NAM/GFS ARE AT OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE SPECTRUM HERE...WITH THE NAM CURIOUSLY OFFERING THE MOST AMPLIFIED OF THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER MODELS. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL AND THE ERN GOMEX SHOULD PROMOTE A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE NAM...FELT ITS STRENGTH MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE CAN GLOBAL WHICH OFFERS A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE NAM...BUT IS LESS INTENSE. REFER TO THE NHC OUTLOOKS FOR THE LATEST INFO REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL STORM.

http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus04.KWBC.html

Let's see what will occur in reallity with this system but as I see it this morning it s slowly organizing.

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Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:22 am, edited 4 times in total.
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#2 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Jul 02, 2005 6:16 am

Agreed, it does look a little better. Models are on it for sure.
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#3 Postby weatherwindow » Sat Jul 02, 2005 6:46 am

good morning luis, ....altho i have occaisonally been accused of being a slave to climatology, climo does not bode well for trop cyclone dev in the caribbean in july. only two storms have developed in the nw caribbean in the last 120 years. that said, i certainly think that this disturance has cindy potential. IMHO, that organization will occur north of the yucatan, rather than the carib and will threaten LA,, MS, AL coast as a strong ts/marginal hurr................rich
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2005 6:54 am

Dont look at the big blob of convection South of Jamaica .If a surface low forms it will be north of Honduras where you see less convection to the WSW of the blob.
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#5 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jul 02, 2005 9:15 am

It appears to be looking more and more impressive this morning per satellite, especially the area that Luis has identified.

We may have something ...
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#6 Postby skysummit » Sat Jul 02, 2005 9:29 am

Portastorm wrote:It appears to be looking more and more impressive this morning per satellite, especially the area that Luis has identified.

We may have something ...


If only we could lose at least 1 of those 2 ULLs :roll:
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????

#7 Postby bevgo » Sat Jul 02, 2005 6:32 pm

What are the chances the system will just thread the eye of the needle and pass between the Yucatan and the tip of Cuba? If it that did happen the central Gulf Coast would be under threat--provided of course development continues.
8-) :think: :hmm:
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