Will a invest be up for Tropical Atlantic Wave or not?

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Will 96L be up for Atlantic wave or no invest at all?

Yes 96L will be up
34
62%
No invest will be up
21
38%
 
Total votes: 55

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cycloneye
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#21 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:03 pm

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W S OF 23N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CURRENTLY HAS A COMPLEX STRUCTURE AS IT APPEARS THE
SFC/LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED ABOUT 300-350 NM TO THE W
OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO BE INFLECTED
ALONG A SW/NE LINE ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS AND A LARGE AREA OF DRY
STABLE AIR LIES TO THE W ALL THE WAY TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THIS WILL INDUCE SPECTACULAR WEATHER OVER THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS THRU THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BEGIN TO
INCREASE SUN NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE. AS FAR AS
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...ALL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF CONSIDERABLY IN FORMING A STRONG SFC LOW AND INSTEAD SHOW A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WAVE CROSSING THE ISLANDS ON MON.

The above is discussion of 8:05 PM EDT.

Looks like plenty of rain for the islands but nothing more.
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#22 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:07 pm

Looks like Cindy is going be a few weeks by that discussion.
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Thunder44
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#23 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:11 pm

I know it has it an LLC, but without much convection, it has very little chance to develop, with all that dry air ahead of it.
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Steve
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#24 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 30, 2005 8:13 pm

I went to the Accuweather home page (popup blocker in effect of course) to see what the "peek inside Joe's column" teaser had to say. It reads:

IMPLICATIONS ARE FOR A TROPICAL STORM OR A HURRICANE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO NEXT WEEK...

So there are 'implications.' I don't pay for the column, so I'm going to assume he's saying that there's a pretty good chance at a tropical storm or hurricane east of the SE US Coast. I realize some models want to send a reinforcing shot of high pressure from the US and other models open up a weakness there. They are at least partially playing up a threat. A lot of other people have already commented on that particular wave, so it's not like he's pulling this one out of a pattern or anything. But it's on the record for future reference.

Steve
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