Mark @ hurricanetrack.com talks CV

[air360]

I just thought it was interesting that Mark on Hurricanetrack.com this evening was talking about the CV possibility in the models...I suppose this strikes me as interesting since he normally trys to relay only what the NHC says...as in...he keeps it simple and to the point. Anyways...i know he isnt a big weather forecaster or anything...just thought it was interesting that he is even mentioning it on his site...

[Guest]

Interesting because upper level winds have become favourable and wind shear is decreasing in that general vicinity.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8ir.html

[hurricanetrack]

Yes, I was interested in what the GFS has been "saying" since we have some history to go by in this new era of increased hurricane activity. WAY back in 1996 a tropical wave moved off of Africa around July 1 and became hurricane Bertha. Since the GFS is showing some sort of development starting around July 1 of THIS year, I thought it might be worth looking at a bit closer. Since water temps are so warm already and upper level winds look pretty good in the deep tropics (especially as time progresses) it might be worth it to keep an eye on what the GFS is or is not up to. It would certainly be incredible to have another very early CV hurricane and with 1996 to go by, it certainly is possible.

[air360]

yes, thanks for the reply mark. That is what i was thinking you were doing. My main reason for posting about it was i suppose becuase there are some people on here who have been basically saying "its impossible for a storm to happen this early..im not even going to bother looking at CV" ....so i thought it interesting and good that you made the post about it being a possibility

[dhweather]

I'll wait until late next week to worry about that.