Tropical Systems are Fickle

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 260601
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...KTBW 00Z SOUNDING CLEARLY DEPICTS THE
DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS THAT HAS FILTERED INTO OUR CWA. BELOW 600
MB THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST...1.87 INCH 00Z PWAT VALUE.
ABOVE 600 MB THE AIR MASS DRIED AND WARMED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...
A CLEAR REFLECTION OF THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENCE
DAMPENED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF YESTERDAY EXCEPT WHERE THE
PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER (PBL) MASS FLUX CONVERGENCE WAS STRONGEST
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE AND THE BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC PBL
FLOW. TODAY (DAY 1) EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO EMERGE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED ALONG A RELATIVELY NARROW LINE FROM I-75
TO THE EAST..EXTENDING FROM HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY THROUGH PASCO AND
HERNANDO TO SUMTER AND CITRUS COUNTIES. STORMS CELLS THAT DEVELOP
WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN A TRAIN ECHO FASHION FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MONDAY (DAY 2) AND
TUESDAY (DAY 3) WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC BUILDS A RIDGE AXIS TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF-MEX AND ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE
PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE BAHAMAS INTO
THE CWA. THIS WILL BUMP UP OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY (DAY 2) AND
TUESDAY (DAY 3) AFTERNOONS TO BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT...AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLORIDA. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCREASING POPS ABOVE 50 FOR NOW...THESE TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE
FICKLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SAT)...MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF DEVELOPING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH SETTING UP.
RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY BRINGING AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH TYPICAL SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WOULD BRING A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION BEING MAINLY IN
THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW EXCEPT
FOR THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES AND A CONTINUED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUE TO VARY FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[dhweather]

The local mets in the AFD's to occasionaly have a sense of humor!