IF This Sticks Around All Summer...LOOK OUT!

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
cyclonaut

IF This Sticks Around All Summer...LOOK OUT!

#1 Postby cyclonaut » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:03 pm

GFS
Image
NOGAPS
Image
UKMET
Image
:eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

#2 Postby dhweather » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:09 pm

Well, that would concur with the NCEP analysis of the extreme SE US
being dry this summer. The ridge extends over SC/GA/FL/AL
Of course, it will move around a bit, but in general, this is
likely the long term trend we'll see for the season.

That is why I leaned to TX/LA/MS for more activity this year
over FL.
0 likes   

cyclonaut

#3 Postby cyclonaut » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:15 pm

I know that these Highs oscillate around alot but right there that appears to be a longtracker landfall scenario for Florida.
0 likes   

User avatar
Scott_inVA
Storm2k Forecaster
Storm2k Forecaster
Posts: 1238
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 5:44 pm
Location: Lexington, Virginia
Contact:

#4 Postby Scott_inVA » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:19 pm

Remember last October? Ridge hung tough well in Fall. Recall where most winter storms tracked...SW/TX/OV/Northeast.

As early as February 2005 the indications were there strongly suggesting the so called "Bermuda" High will pulse and retro but will be the dominant feature throughout much of the summer.

Granted a couple days worth of modeling doesn't prove the point, but climo and pattern recognition sure leads one to believe it will be a contenda'

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

Home of the *real* Model Maps
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
Last edited by Scott_inVA on Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23703
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#5 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:22 pm

Dry SE....it's been extremely wet in S. Florida this May/June...well above normal rainfall...the setup is NOT the same as last year...look for GOM and Caribbean storms this year for FL, not the Atlantic.
0 likes   

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

#6 Postby dhweather » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:27 pm

The setup is similar, but not identical.

South Florida has been the proud winner of the 2005 "tropical moisture
hanging out for a long time" contest.

Of course, one argue (I think Perry did) that the setup would permit
dual landfall systems - South FL, then LA/MS/TX
0 likes   

cyclonaut

#7 Postby cyclonaut » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:43 pm

Before I get ripped a new one please take the time to notice the "IF" in the title is in caps. :wink:

I am in no way saying that this is going to be the pattern all summer.
0 likes   

cyclonaut

#8 Postby cyclonaut » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:53 pm

The angle of the line or isobar that seperates the yellow fom the orange that cuts through South Fla & then turns toward Fla Panhandle,Missiissippi or Louisianna,depending on what model you look @ almost mimics the track of some nasty canes.
UKMET
Image
GFS Georges???
Image
Last edited by cyclonaut on Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

#9 Postby dhweather » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:59 pm

Exactly!

Good research.
0 likes   

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1626
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

#10 Postby sponger » Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:33 pm

At least jacksonville looks safe under that set up. It looks like a strong high hanging around for awhile.
0 likes   

Scorpion

#11 Postby Scorpion » Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:25 pm

I don't see how tropical moisture from various waves this month has anything to do with whether a hurricane will hit Florida from the east.
0 likes   

cyclonaut

#12 Postby cyclonaut » Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:33 pm

Me either.

There really is no rhyme or reason to.We can look back @ the last 150 or so years of weather data which is nothing & draw such & such conclusions but in the grand scheme of things I'm sure that everything that can happen has & will again.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:36 pm

If this pattern sticks then I will be thinking about buying a property in Antarctica. I hope the penguins won't get upset!
0 likes   

User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#14 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Jun 25, 2005 3:14 am

HURAKAN wrote:If this pattern sticks then I will be thinking about buying a property in Antarctica. I hope the penguins won't get upset!


I think I'll join you! :lol:

Not to mention, some of the water at the mouth of the Mississippi is some of the warmest in the basin.
0 likes   
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends

User avatar
Decomdoug
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 177
Age: 73
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:34 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

#15 Postby Decomdoug » Sat Jun 25, 2005 7:55 am

Hope the "Hurricane God" isn"t still mad at St. Lucie inlet area. Am tired of being ground zero! :(
0 likes   

User avatar
NativeFloridaGirl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 7:07 am
Location: In Exile In Lower Alabama

#16 Postby NativeFloridaGirl » Sat Jun 25, 2005 8:19 am

Decomdoug wrote:Hope the "Hurricane God" isn"t still mad at St. Lucie inlet area. Am tired of being ground zero! :(


You and me both!

~Beth~
0 likes   

krysof

#17 Postby krysof » Sat Jun 25, 2005 8:26 am

How do I upload images?
0 likes   

User avatar
CentralFlGal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 573
Joined: Mon May 16, 2005 9:32 pm
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL

#18 Postby CentralFlGal » Sat Jun 25, 2005 12:35 pm

You can open a free account with a site such as http://www.photobucket.com and upload your images there.

Once they are uploaded, you are given IMG links to use in your posts here. Copy/paste that link in your post, then highlight the string and click the "Img" button above.

HTH!
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 496 guests