GFS consistent on developing Atlantic system

[hurricanetrack]

For the last few runs of the operational GFS, the one we see at this link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

it appears that some sort of tropical system forms and heads in the general direction of the Southeast. The 6Z run actually showed a low coming right up to the Carolinas and then inland- though way out in the period. This certainly seems possible with an apparent building Bermuda High- as seen on the 500mb animations. Soooo....we should at least pay attention to the deep tropics over the next 10 days just to be sure. You never know with water as warm as it is...all we need now is favorable upper level winds...the tropical waves are already there.

[dhweather]

What is more interesting, and I know long range models are usually WAY off,
is that it appears that we may actually see the start of the CV season.
Watch from 20 to 40 degrees in the last four to six frames.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Swimdude]

Again, as already said, they're very inaccurate. I'm sure this season will have an early CV start, however. We'll just have to to see when...

[Anonymous]

So now 3 models agree on this

12z GFS http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

00Z MM5
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

00Z Canadian
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[clfenwi]

I don't see agreement between GFS and the Canadian.

Stepping back a second to make sure everyone is in agreement with what is being talked about...

...when I read the first post and looked at the GFS, it was the 06Z run and it showed a low closing off at the 204 hr mark and going inland somewhere between 346 and 360 hours.

The 12Z run doesn't seems to show the same precipitation blob but doesn't have a closed low.

Now switching to the Candian model. The 00Z run had a closed low in the vicinity of 25N 70W at 120 hours and brings it to about 30N 70 W at 144 hours. The 12Z run shows similar positioning but has it a couple of millibars deeper.

So let's compare:00Z CMC at 120 hours

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=120hr

12Z GFS at 108 hours

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=108hr

Definitely not agreement. The GFS seems to close then fill a 1016 low near the Carolina coast.

A model that seems to agree with the GFS at this moment in time is the UKMET:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=108hr

Neither offers anything like the CMC's suggestion.

(For some reason moe doesn't have the 12Z after 72 hours, I looked at those images from this link: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

[clfenwi]

18Z GFS run seems to be trying to close a low not too far from where the CMC has been closing one at roughly the same time. Compare

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=120hr

and

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_120.jpg