Arlene also stronger...
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_adv_nt1.html
Tropical storm watch issued!!!
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Tropical storm watch issued!!!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
000
WTNT31 KNHC 100840
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005
...ARLENE TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM
PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THESE WARNINGS MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS
FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 10 MILES... 15 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP
OF CUBA.
ARLENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH... 75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA.
GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION LATER
TONIGHT.
SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...21.6 N... 84.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT31 KNHC 100840
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005
...ARLENE TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM
PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THESE WARNINGS MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS
FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 10 MILES... 15 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP
OF CUBA.
ARLENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH... 75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA.
GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION LATER
TONIGHT.
SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...21.6 N... 84.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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000
WTNT71 KNHC 100840
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
WTNT71 KNHC 100840
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005
Code: Select all
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.2N 87.2W 42 1 X X 43 MOBILE AL X 17 7 1 25
28.5N 88.3W 5 26 X X 31 GULFPORT MS X 20 6 X 26
31.0N 88.8W X 15 9 1 25 BURAS LA X 24 3 X 27
MUSN 216N 826W 2 X X X 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X 18 5 1 24
MUAN 219N 850W 99 X X X 99 NEW IBERIA LA X 7 8 1 16
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 3 3 6
SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 GALVESTON TX X X 1 2 3
CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X 7 4 1 12
CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 29N 87W 1 22 2 X 25
ST MARKS FL X 1 4 3 8 GULF 28N 89W 9 21 X X 30
APALACHICOLA FL X 4 6 2 12 GULF 28N 91W 1 13 2 1 17
PANAMA CITY FL X 6 7 2 15 GULF 28N 93W X 1 3 1 5
PENSACOLA FL X 14 7 1 22COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
000
WTNT41 KNHC 100849
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005
ARLENE HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...
WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN A POORLY-DEFINED BAND
NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED WIND
CENTER...A 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56
KT AT 850 MB NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND IS
REACHING THE SURFACE IS QUESTIONABLE...AS THE CONVECTION IN THE
AREA IS SOMEWHAT ISOLATED AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH REPORTED 20 KT
WINDS AT 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE FLIGHT-LEVEL ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT.
ARLENE HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST 6 HR AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 340/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD STEER ARLENE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
IT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 36-48 HR. DYNAMICAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE
TRACK AND SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CALLING FOR ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HR FOLLOWED BY SOME SLOWING AS
ARLENE APPROACHES THE COAST. THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE UKMET AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ON THE STRENGTHENING
SIDE...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AS ARLENE MOVES OVER THE
FAIRLY WARM WATERS OF THE LOOP CURRENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
BROAD WIND STRUCTURE AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR ARLENE BOTH ARGUE AGAINST STRENGTHENING. THE
SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE STORM TO REACH 45-50 KT INTENSITY BEFORE
LANDFALL... WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR A 64 KT INTENSITY AT LANDFALL.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...
CALLING FOR ARLENE TO REACH 55 KT BEFORE LANDFALL.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 21.6N 84.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 23.4N 85.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 26.2N 87.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 28.5N 88.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 31.0N 88.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 37.0N 87.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/0600Z 42.0N 82.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
WTNT41 KNHC 100849
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005
ARLENE HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...
WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN A POORLY-DEFINED BAND
NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED WIND
CENTER...A 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56
KT AT 850 MB NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND IS
REACHING THE SURFACE IS QUESTIONABLE...AS THE CONVECTION IN THE
AREA IS SOMEWHAT ISOLATED AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH REPORTED 20 KT
WINDS AT 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE FLIGHT-LEVEL ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT.
ARLENE HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST 6 HR AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 340/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD STEER ARLENE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
IT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 36-48 HR. DYNAMICAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE
TRACK AND SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CALLING FOR ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HR FOLLOWED BY SOME SLOWING AS
ARLENE APPROACHES THE COAST. THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE UKMET AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ON THE STRENGTHENING
SIDE...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AS ARLENE MOVES OVER THE
FAIRLY WARM WATERS OF THE LOOP CURRENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
BROAD WIND STRUCTURE AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR ARLENE BOTH ARGUE AGAINST STRENGTHENING. THE
SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE STORM TO REACH 45-50 KT INTENSITY BEFORE
LANDFALL... WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR A 64 KT INTENSITY AT LANDFALL.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...
CALLING FOR ARLENE TO REACH 55 KT BEFORE LANDFALL.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 21.6N 84.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 23.4N 85.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 26.2N 87.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 28.5N 88.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 31.0N 88.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 37.0N 87.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/0600Z 42.0N 82.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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