12:00 UTC Model Guidance for Tropical Storm Arlene

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE (AL012005) ON 20050609 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050609 1200 050610 0000 050610 1200 050611 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.2N 84.0W 21.7N 84.1W 24.4N 84.6W 27.4N 85.7W
BAMM 19.2N 84.0W 21.0N 84.6W 22.9N 85.2W 25.2N 85.7W
A98E 19.2N 84.0W 20.8N 84.1W 22.7N 84.2W 24.9N 84.7W
LBAR 19.2N 84.0W 21.3N 84.3W 23.6N 84.8W 26.0N 85.4W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 46KTS 50KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 46KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050611 1200 050612 1200 050613 1200 050614 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.4N 87.0W 37.0N 88.2W 42.5N 82.6W 40.5N 72.0W
BAMM 27.6N 86.3W 32.1N 88.0W 36.0N 88.0W 38.8N 84.6W
A98E 27.2N 85.8W 30.9N 88.5W 35.3N 88.6W 38.7N 83.1W
LBAR 28.1N 85.9W 32.0N 86.2W 35.3N 85.2W 37.1N 81.7W
SHIP 51KTS 46KTS 32KTS 19KTS
DSHP 51KTS 33KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 84.0W DIRCUR = 360DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 83.9W DIRM12 = 4DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 83.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Look how tight are those models in terms of the track at the 12:00 UTC run.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow the models are getting better. In the models forecasted this a weak ahead. Wow hurricane forecasting is becoming easier by the year.

[cycloneye]

Wow the models are getting better. In the models forecasted this a weak ahead. Wow hurricane forecasting is becoming easier by the year.

Agree on that but still there is some work to do in terms of intensity forecasts.

[Agua]

Hope that verifies. Keeps it just east of me.

[cycloneye]

Hope that verifies. Keeps it just east of me.

If the center passes east of your location you will not see a drop.

[dhweather]

Hope that verifies. Keeps it just east of me.

Chicken.

The weather is going to be well east of us, the poor folks in the panhandle will get the brunt of what Arlene has to offer, unless some freak strengthening happens or the course changes dramatically.

[Brent]

Hope that verifies. Keeps it just east of me.

If the center passes east of your location you will not see a drop.

May not see anything if it passes OVER you.

[cycloneye]

Hope that verifies. Keeps it just east of me.

If the center passes east of your location you will not see a drop.

May not see anything if it passes OVER you.

Exactly.

[Brent]

Back on topic...



Anyone have a boat I can borrow?

[Scott_inVA]

Tropicals remain well east of TPC while GFS & GFDL are slightly west (w AL/e LA). MM5 has backed way down, which is valid given its' outrageous intensity over the last 2 days.

Scott

[melhow]

Here's a thought...speaking of model strengths and weaknesses, like intensity and such, how about stalls?

How well are system stalls forecast? Is it possible that Arlene could stall in the Gulf a la Elena 85?

[Brent]

Here's a thought...speaking of model strengths and weaknesses, like intensity and such, how about stalls?

How well are system stalls forecast? Is it possible that Arlene could stall in the Gulf a la Elena 85?

No... it won't stall(fast flow aloft, it's not going to be moving under 10-12 mph at landfall), but stalling systems are TOUGH to forecast!

[cajungal]

Everything will be well to my east. I doubt if I will see a drop of rain out of this system. Even if it hit New Orleans, I probably would not see a drop. Since I am west of the city. Bill passed directly over us, and it rained, and was a little breezy. But, that is about it.

[jamima]

looks like fl is going to get wet!!!

[chigger11]

What would y'all predict would be happening in PB county if the current track verifies? What kind of rain and wind event should we expect at this point. I know a lot can happen until then.

[Stormcenter]

Everything will be well to my east. I doubt if I will see a drop of rain out of this system. Even if it hit New Orleans, I probably would not see a drop. Since I am west of the city. Bill passed directly over us, and it rained, and was a little breezy. But, that is about it.

I was in Mandeville, LA visiting relatives when Bill hit and it was horrible there with lots a trees down. I would not completely write Arlene off as having little if any effect on the SE LA. area just yet especially if this high builds westward more than anticiapted and forces Arlene on a more northwestward course.

[lilbump3000]

06Z GFS and other models have trended back towards the west with a landfall near gulfport mississippi. So we will just wait to see what the 12Z show.