Recon Plan for Tomorrow...Wow

[x-y-no]

Do you suppose they're taking this opportunity to sort of have a warm up for the season?

I dunno, it just doesn't look like much and so many of our experts here have expressed doubt that it would reach TS status.

That's a lot of missions for just a warm-up.

Looks to me like NHC is taking this seriously.

Jan

[LSU2001]

One caution about the tropics, The experts were saying yesterday that this thing have very little chance for development and that the shear would kill it. Last night on NHCWX radio the experts were talking about a completly sheared system. Today things are not quite working out like expected. The main thing I have learned on this board is that the tropics are not at all easy to predict and these storms seem to want to make humans (forecasters) look foolish. I think that this is simply a waiting game from here on in.
Tim

[Derek Ortt]

latest visible imagery almost shows the low center dissipating as the clouds to the south are becoming much less defined, and there is an outflow boundary in the NW convective area.

This is not organizing quickly at all

[dhweather]

Do you suppose they're taking this opportunity to sort of have a warm up for the season?

I dunno, it just doesn't look like much and so many of our experts here have expressed doubt that it would reach TS status.

Could it be that the models are right for a change? lol

True. I'd take what our guys say over those models though any day. I'm sure you feel the same.

Oh yeah, the models are far from perfect, but they did pick up on this
pretty early. What they do with it is a different story, but it's
getting better.

[sponger]

Highly unlikely for a warm up. They have a limited budget and a long busy season to deal with. My read is the think this ones for real. To early in the game but 3hr fixes tells everything about their level of concern. May still get cancelled, but if they stick than its the real deal!