SW Florida forecast discussion! Pretty Interesting : )

[tracyswfla]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 071759
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...SFC HI PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN OVER
AND SLIDE NORTH WITHIN THE FA THRU THU. MODEL GUIDANCE FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH MOST MODELS ALSO COMING INTO AGREEMENT ABOUT
A LOW PUSHING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY THU. GFS IS THE STRONGEST...
BRINGING A 1000 MB LOW THRU THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. NHC HAS MENTIONED SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL GO WITH GENERAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHWEST OF
THE FA PROVIDING ENUF OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SET UP A GOOD ERLY
FLOW. WIND SPEEDS SHUD BE HIGH ENUF TO PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FROM
MAKING TO MUCH INLAND PENETRATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN FA.

NEXT CONCERN IS PRECIP. LIGHTNING CLIMO FOR WED DEPENDS ON RIDGE
AXIS BEING NORTH OR SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. FOR THE FIRST CASE...THE BEST
CHANCES ARE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR...WHEREAS THE LATTER CASE HAS A
GOOD CHANCE ALL OVER. SHUD THE LOW TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP...RIDGE
AXIS SHUD BE FURTHER SOUTH...SO WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
A GOOD CHANCE ALL OVER. FOR THU...PATTERN WILL BE DISTURBED BECAUSE
OF THE LOW IN THE NW GULF...SO TSTM CLIMO NOT THE BEST TO FOLLOW.
WITH A GOOD ENUF ERLY FLOW...TSTMS WOULD BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS A SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH NMRS POPS IN THE AFTN. WILL KEEP AT HIGH END SCT POPS
AND SEE HOW THE SYSTEM PLAYS OUT.

.LONG TERM (THU NGT-MON)...COULD IT BE? WELL...IF YOU BELIEVE THE
MODEL TRENDS THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THECENTRAL GULF. THE GFS IS BOLDEST...NOW WITH A 999 MB CYCLONE
MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BUT THE ETA/DGEX HAS A SYSTEM A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH WHILE THE CANADIAN IS SIMILAR...THOUGH WEAKER...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE NOGAPS HAS NOTHING...YET...BUT EXPECT
SOMETHING TO ARISE IN A COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS INCREASING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WHICH SUGGESTS A
SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE SUNCOAST. THIS IS BACKED UP BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGES WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIRST TRUE BERMUDA HIGH OF THE
YOUNG SUMMER. THE RIDGE DEVELOPS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH THE 588 DM
CONTOUR MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THE FACT THAT THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE HAS NOT DEVELOPED
YET...AND THIS WILL EVENTUAL DETERMINE WHERE...IF ANY...SYSTEM WILL
TRACK.
AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. FOR NOW...WILL PLAY FOR STRENGTHENING
EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL WIPE OUT ANY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. THE
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE GFS MAY BE OVERDONE BUT CAN'T BE
IGNORED...SO HAVE PUSHED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS INTO THE MARINE
WATERS. TYPICALLY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE SHORT-LIVED
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS...SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY SCOOT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND SOME DRY AIR MAY ACTUALLY
PUSH WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH.
FOR NOW...HAVE JUST BECOME A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN SKY COVER AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE (LESS) SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO PROBLEMS TODAY OR TOMORROW...THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. WILL BRING WINDS UP TO SCEC RANGE
FOR OUR SRN WATERS ON THU...BUT NOT GO HIGHER FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 90 73 90 / 20 50 20 50
FMY 74 92 73 92 / 20 50 20 50
GIF 73 91 73 91 / 30 50 30 50
SRQ 73 88 72 89 / 20 40 20 50
BKV 69 90 70 90 / 30 50 30 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHARP
LONG TERM...GOLDSMITH

[jabber]

Very nice discussion..... Thanks

[tcmitch2]

Tracy, just wanted to say hi and great discussion.