Florida won't like this

[tailgater]

CMC model 2005060700 has a system moving north from western Caribbean along most of Florida's west coast ( the 1st run that it was nearly so bullish so don't put too much wait into it). Kinda like ole Charley. Lets hope NOT.

[Josephine96]

Yes.. but what's the strength of the system.? TS..? Minimal cane..? Nothing..?

[AussieMark]

more rain for Florida huh


---Mark---

[boca]

We had our turn last year in FL,let another area have a turn.

[weatherwindow]

boca, if it is any comfort, the cmc, and to a lesser degree, the gfs are developing and transitioning the system at a rate that seems unrealistic. nw carib systems are notoriously slow to develop and consolidate. further, the average motion of such system is under 10kts. spinning up such a system and putting it on tampa's doorstep on sat is a stretch. imho, such acceleration would normally require a rather sharp trough to its west impinging on the sytem and creating a deep southerly flow. i don't see the necessary mechanism in place in the next 72 hours.....rich

[boca]

Good point weatherwindow, but usually these systems in June head N or NNE in the direction of the Keys/SFL if in fact this isn't a GFS phantom ghost low.

[vbhoutex]

Rich I think you have hit the nail on the head. I just don't see this happening as quickly as some models are showing, even with the developing probable mid level circ over NE Honduras. That has to get out over water first and then still has to consolidate, reach the surface, stack itself, etc. It is almost always a very slow process in this area.