It does indeed appear that this system may change the forecast for the central Florida peninsula tomorrow into the weekend.
The forecast has been calling for the series of eastward moving mesocyclones moving through tropical moisture streaming in from
the south; working with the surface low over the southeast, and what was a stationary front across north Florida/southern Georgia.
As these features move out, a high pressure was expected to move in from Cuba to start/basically continue the beginning of the
wet season here across the Sunshine State.
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Florida NWS offices rain chances for Friday, Friday night
and Saturday (forecast issuance times in parentheses):
...Key West (12:15 pm): Fri.: 50% | Fri. Night: 50% | Sat.: 30%
.........Miami (..1:00 pm): Fri.: 60% | Fri. Night: 60% | Sat.: 30%
........Ruskin (12:00 pm): Fri.: 60% | Fri. Night: 50% | Sat.: 30%
..Melbourne (..1:00 pm): Fri.: 60% | Fri. Night: 60% | Sat.: 40%
Jacksonville (..1:00 pm): Fri.: 60% | Fri. Night: 60% | Sat.: 50%
Tallahassee (11:00 am): Fri.: 40% | Fri. Night: 40% | Sat.: 40%
Ominous looking Caribbean this a.m......
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ColdFront77
NWS Tallahassee has picked up on something interesting in their afternoon discussion:
"Upper trough currently seen on satellite off the coast of the Yucatan is prognosticated by the GFS to slowly move north/NE west of the ridge with a surface low moving through the Florida Big Bend Sunday morning. The last run of the GFS took this feature well west of the area and therefore am a little skeptical with the placement and even the feature itself. Can't discount it entirely however as it matches up well with what is currently taking place. Have therefore slightly bumped up probability of precipitation for the weekend especially in our southeast zones and will defer to next couple of shifts to see any run-to-run consistency with this low. Without any sig organization to it...it looks to be just a possible heavy rain producer for the Northern Peninsula/Big Bend. "
"Upper trough currently seen on satellite off the coast of the Yucatan is prognosticated by the GFS to slowly move north/NE west of the ridge with a surface low moving through the Florida Big Bend Sunday morning. The last run of the GFS took this feature well west of the area and therefore am a little skeptical with the placement and even the feature itself. Can't discount it entirely however as it matches up well with what is currently taking place. Have therefore slightly bumped up probability of precipitation for the weekend especially in our southeast zones and will defer to next couple of shifts to see any run-to-run consistency with this low. Without any sig organization to it...it looks to be just a possible heavy rain producer for the Northern Peninsula/Big Bend. "
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