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dixiebreeze
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#21 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue May 17, 2005 2:27 pm

Thinking it might not get torn up so much if stays on a more easterly course before turning NE. Right now it's ENE, so we'll see.
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#22 Postby Rainband » Tue May 17, 2005 2:27 pm

Depends on how fast it moves and the shear tendency when it gets there. Could mean alot of rain for Cuba and Luis :eek:
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#23 Postby Brett Adair » Tue May 17, 2005 2:28 pm

cycloneye wrote:
GalvestonDuck wrote:So, can anyone who has an eye for these things tell us what factors are hovering around on the Atlantic side that will effect its path? IOW, might it turn GOM-ward bound (dang it! now I'm gonna be singing that Simon & Garfunkle song...and I only have myself to blame) and bring us rain or will it continue eastward or do we have any clue?


CentralAmerican Mountains will tear apart the system once it gets there.


CycloneEye, you beat me to it.
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 17, 2005 2:28 pm

I just can't wait to see the future trayectory of the system. This will be the only system to have tracked to Central America since Andres in 1997, at least this early in the season.

Image
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#25 Postby x-y-no » Tue May 17, 2005 2:28 pm

BTW, as Derek pointed out over in the analysis forum, this could be a very serious rain/flood event regardless of how much or little it intensifies. That region is not well prepared for this kind of event, to put it mildly. :eek:
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#26 Postby krysof » Tue May 17, 2005 2:29 pm

well it's still really early, a lot of shear exists, the atlantic will still have to wait a while. The water temperatures still have a lot of warming to do in north of the caribbean.
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#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 17, 2005 2:30 pm

x-y-no wrote:BTW, as Derek pointed out over in the analysis forum, this could be a very serious rain/flood event regardless of how much or little it intensifies. That region is not well prepared for this kind of event, to put it mildly. :eek:


Yes that is the bad part about this system.I hope that anything tragic occurs.
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#28 Postby vbhoutex » Tue May 17, 2005 2:30 pm

krysof wrote:Now this is excitement, do you know its speed, wind speed, movement?


I know Luis answered the question but here is a little lesson.

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 95.2W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 3KT means current latitude is 9.8N, current longitude is 95.2W and current direction is at 75º(NNE) at 3 knots(speed is 3.5 mph)

LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 95.8W DIRM12 = 82DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 96.6W

WNDCUR = 30KT means winds are 30 knots currently or 35 mph. RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1005MB
Last edited by vbhoutex on Tue May 17, 2005 2:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#29 Postby Rainband » Tue May 17, 2005 2:31 pm

I agree the system will most likely be shreaded by the terrain but it will be a big Problem for Soutyh America :(
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#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 17, 2005 2:32 pm

Rainband wrote:I agree the system will most likely be shreaded by the terrain but it will be a big Problem for South America :(


You meant CentralAmerica right? :)
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#31 Postby KatDaddy » Tue May 17, 2005 2:32 pm

Not a threat to the GOM. The Westerlies are still way to strong creating abundant shear. Whats left of soon to be Adrian will be a Caribbean threat of mostly heavy tropical rainfall.
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#32 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 17, 2005 2:59 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
krysof wrote:Now this is excitement, do you know its speed, wind speed, movement?


I know Luis answered the question but here is a little lesson.

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 95.2W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 3KT means current latitude is 9.8N, current longitude is 95.2W and current direction is at 75º(NNE) at 3 knots(speed is 3.5 mph)

LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 95.8W DIRM12 = 82DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 96.6W

WNDCUR = 30KT means winds are 30 knots currently or 35 mph. RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1005MB


Ok David you posted the more complete explanation. :)
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Rainband

#33 Postby Rainband » Tue May 17, 2005 3:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Rainband wrote:I agree the system will most likely be shreaded by the terrain but it will be a big Problem for South America :(


You meant CentralAmerica right? :)
yes :oops: :lol:
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#34 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Tue May 17, 2005 3:25 pm

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#35 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Tue May 17, 2005 3:28 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00501.html


i meant to put this on the board hehe my bad...................
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#36 Postby dhweather » Tue May 17, 2005 3:31 pm

That still looks so strange - a graph of a crossover system.
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