First model plots for 91L

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cycloneye
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First model plots for 91L

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 15, 2005 7:16 am


NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050515 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050515 0600 050515 1800 050516 0600 050516 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 78.5W 14.5N 77.2W 15.2N 75.1W 16.0N 73.0W
BAMM 14.0N 78.5W 15.0N 78.1W 15.9N 76.4W 16.7N 74.3W
A98E 14.0N 78.5W 14.6N 78.1W 15.2N 78.0W 15.7N 77.8W
LBAR 14.0N 78.5W 14.8N 77.3W 16.1N 75.8W 17.8N 73.8W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050517 0600 050518 0600 050519 0600 050520 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 70.9W 16.3N 68.2W 15.4N 65.7W 14.9N 61.8W
BAMM 17.1N 72.2W 17.1N 69.5W 16.9N 66.5W 17.1N 61.0W
A98E 15.9N 77.2W 17.1N 75.4W 17.9N 73.2W 18.6N 70.4W
LBAR 20.2N 71.4W 24.6N 64.5W 27.2N 58.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 22KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 22KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 78.5W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 79.3W DIRM12 = 54DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 79.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

This is no test as past ones were in the last few weeks.Interesting that the Model guidance made this run. However they dont show any development of it.The biggest threat will be the copius amounts of rain for the Greater Antilles.Also this low is crawling so it will take it's time to get out of the caribbean.
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#2 Postby senorpepr » Sun May 15, 2005 10:56 am

Image
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#3 Postby x-y-no » Sun May 15, 2005 11:08 am

This thing is too weak for the BAMs to get a grip on it ... if I had to pick among these tracks, I'd go with the A98E, useless as it is in most cases ;-)
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#4 Postby msbee » Sun May 15, 2005 11:40 am

well, I certainly hope the BAMM is worng , because that brings it right over me. :(
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kevin

#5 Postby kevin » Sun May 15, 2005 11:41 am

The tropical models dissipate it that far out msbee. Lets hope the rains stay away from you (unless you need some).
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#6 Postby msbee » Sun May 15, 2005 1:43 pm

we can always use the rain :lol:

Barbara
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