Hurricanealley.com update, Upper Texas Coast: 2005 High Risk

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KatDaddy
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#21 Postby KatDaddy » Thu May 12, 2005 6:56 pm

The Weather Research Center also has Texas at a 70%.

Image

http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/hur2005.htm
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MGC
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#22 Postby MGC » Thu May 12, 2005 7:00 pm

How are the landfall probabilities calculated? Spin a bottle in the middle of the GOM and where it pointed was the highest risk?......MGC
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#23 Postby TampaFl » Thu May 12, 2005 7:34 pm

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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KatDaddy
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#24 Postby KatDaddy » Thu May 12, 2005 8:06 pm

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
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#25 Postby gatorcane » Thu May 12, 2005 8:29 pm

This map doesn't mean anything in my opinion. Basically all of the East coast US is at high risk and the entire Caribbean is? Well duh right? There is no evidence or process behind creating this map in my opinion....don't zone in on this at all. The upper Texas coast is no more at risk than any place else on the East Coast U.S.
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#26 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu May 12, 2005 9:22 pm

strike probabi;lities are calculated by the chances of a TC passing within 85NM of an area
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#27 Postby Agua » Thu May 12, 2005 10:11 pm

KatDaddy wrote:The Weather Research Center also has Texas at a 70%.


If I'm interpreting their verification correctly, they haven't done so hot in the past.

http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/fcst.htm
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Windy
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#28 Postby Windy » Fri May 13, 2005 12:10 am

How do these progs come about? Climatology?
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#29 Postby KatDaddy » Fri May 13, 2005 11:05 am

For what is worth regarding the Weather Research Center, here is some of their reasoning. It will be many years before we predict what part of the coastline will experience a landfalling storm months in advance

http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/sunhist.htm

As It was aptly stated before by Chad. Everyone living in a hurricane prone area better be prepared every hurricane season.
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#30 Postby Andy_L » Fri May 13, 2005 12:34 pm

WOW!!! :eek: They have Nova Scotia, in the Canadian Maritimes listed as a RED. Hope they don't get another Juan kinda storm :(

Andy
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