Development unlikely

[Derek Ortt]

I checked the models today at work, and found nothing more than a 1005 mb low that lasts mroe than 12 hours. This will not even be a TD from a hybrid as the typical pressure for a TD of this nature is about 1003mb. Most of the models do not even show anything, only GFS and NOGAPS show development. I think it is quite safe to say that the solution of a TC forming is unrealistic at this time

[ColdFront77]

That's true, Derek... development is unlikely. Which specific location in the Atlantic Basin are you referring to?

[chadtm80]

Unlikely yes, but i also remember Ana was "Unlikely"

Bring on June 1st

[cycloneye]

In the tropics never say never are the best words.

[Anonymous]

The AVN now barely even picks up on the low (yesterday it showed a very substantial one, rather tropical at that). Most of the other models never showed much to begin with, and still do not. The AVN is having a hard time being consisent, so I wouldn't be surprised if it shows a stronger low in the next run. In any event, the models in a whole have the low move in a motion further left and quicker. Plus they are a less agressive than they were with Ana. To sum it up, this one will likely have a harder time developing. I'm not expecting anything to come out of it, but it is worth watching as the models can easily change.

[cycloneye]

Yes Supercane nothing that I haved seen suggest anything forming into a tropical system so at this time it appears that nothing will develop but we are here because we like to watch everything right well let's watch this unfold next week even when nothing will happen.

[Steve H.]

Actually, I've seen Tropical Storms at 1005mb, never mind 1003mb. Pressures aren't always proportional to wind speeds. To say a system is merely a TD, even given a specific set of criteria, isn't really a valid statement. :?

[Stormsfury]

Under certain circumstances, there can be Tropical Storms with surface pressures even higher than 1010mb, but I don't see this one developing into anything subtropical or tropical at this time.

If any "surprises" happen, then another historical occurrence would then occur - actually many.

[Derek Ortt]

Regarding the pressures:

For systems forming along fronts, the pressure needs to be about 1003 as the environmental pressures are generally low. In low pressure environments, I have seen tropical storms have pressures into the low 970's and still cannot sustain hurricane force winds.

Anything would form along a front in this case; thus, we are going to need a really low pressure to sustain anything

[ColdFront77]

Another good point... "Ana was unlikely" and formed.

The pressure is important for tropical development, but we can sure see situatins where a pressure of say below 1008 mb means we should have a Tropical Depression. 8)

[Colin]

For sure: "Never say Never." Ana was "unlikely" and look what she did! She gained tropical characteristics when most people didn't even think it would be more than a Sub-Tropical Storm! :o