Still no El Nino..

[Aquawind]

Latest forecast still looking neutral.. The MDR continues to look very warm..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ecast.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... TEQMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTSea.gif

Paul

[Scorpion]

Great news. El Nino will die.

[MortisFL]

You guys ever see Chris Farley pretend he was El Nino on Saturday Night Live? Great stuff.

[x-y-no]

The kelvin wave is about to start surfacing, so expect some warming in the 110w to 120w region and spreading back from there over the next month or more, but I don't think it'll overcome the cool anomaly in the east, and I think we'll be headed back towards neutral for the storm season.

[cycloneye]

The kelvin wave is about to start surfacing, so expect some warming in the 110w to 120w region and spreading back from there over the next month or more, but I don't think it'll overcome the cool anomaly in the east, and I think we'll be headed back towards neutral for the storm season.

Not too strong to overide the cool waters at el nino 1-2 but let's watch how all evolves in the next couple of months.

[StormChasr]

Don't bet against it--I think Kelvin wave #3 will fire up. Don't cry Scorpion, you'll still see some 'canes.

[Aquawind]

Don't bet against it--I think Kelvin wave #3 will fire up. Don't cry Scorpion, you'll still see some 'canes.

On the TalkinTropics Show tonight Dr Landsea mentioned that a strong to moderate El Nino is a possibilty yet this year.. The Current MJO in the Indian Ocean could start another Kelvin about the time the current Kelvin is making an impact in the South American coastal reagions.. Also some Models do suggest a El Nino will develop..

The Archives for the show will be up later tonight.. an excellent discussion for sure..

Paul

[Scorpion]

Never .

[HurricaneBill]

Even if an El Nino does develop, the U.S. is still prone to hurricanes.

In fact, in many El Nino years, a hurricane has struck the U.S.

1957: Hurricane Audrey (Category 4)

1965: Hurricane Betsy (Category 3)

1969: Hurricane Camille (Category 5)
Hurricane Gerda (Category 1)

1972: Hurricane Agnes (Category 1)

1976: Hurricane Belle (Category 1)

1977: Hurricane Babe (Category 1)

1983: Hurricane Alicia (Category 3)

1986: Hurricane Bonnie (Category 1)
Hurricane Charley (Category 1)

1987: Hurricane Floyd (Category 1)

1991: Hurricane Bob (Category 2)

1992: Hurricane Andrew (Category 5)

1993: Hurricane Emily (Category 3)

1997: Hurricane Danny (Category 1)

2002: Hurricane Lili (Category 1)

[Huckster]

Even if an El Nino does develop, the U.S. is still prone to hurricanes.

In fact, in many El Nino years, a hurricane has struck the U.S.

1957: Hurricane Audrey (Category 4)

1965: Hurricane Betsy (Category 3)

1969: Hurricane Camille (Category 5)
Hurricane Gerda (Category 1)

1972: Hurricane Agnes (Category 1)

1976: Hurricane Belle (Category 1)

1977: Hurricane Babe (Category 1)

1983: Hurricane Alicia (Category 3)

1986: Hurricane Bonnie (Category 1)
Hurricane Charley (Category 1)

1987: Hurricane Floyd (Category 1)

1991: Hurricane Bob (Category 2)

1992: Hurricane Andrew (Category 5)

1993: Hurricane Emily (Category 3)

1997: Hurricane Danny (Category 1)

2002: Hurricane Lili (Category 1)

I think it's interesting that during those years, nine of the sixteen hurricanes ended up hitting the northcentral/northwest Gulf. Does anyone have a theory behind that?

[vacanechaser]

Even if an El Nino does develop, the U.S. is still prone to hurricanes.

In fact, in many El Nino years, a hurricane has struck the U.S.

1957: Hurricane Audrey (Category 4)

1965: Hurricane Betsy (Category 3)

1969: Hurricane Camille (Category 5)
Hurricane Gerda (Category 1)

1972: Hurricane Agnes (Category 1)

1976: Hurricane Belle (Category 1)

1977: Hurricane Babe (Category 1)

1983: Hurricane Alicia (Category 3)

1986: Hurricane Bonnie (Category 1)
Hurricane Charley (Category 1)

1987: Hurricane Floyd (Category 1)

1991: Hurricane Bob (Category 2)

1992: Hurricane Andrew (Category 5)

1993: Hurricane Emily (Category 3)

1997: Hurricane Danny (Category 1)

2002: Hurricane Lili (Category 1)

I think it's interesting that during those years, nine of the sixteen hurricanes ended up hitting the northcentral/northwest Gulf. Does anyone have a theory behind that?

notice too that in 2 of these el nino years we had 2 of the 3 known cat 5's hit the coast.. pretty interesting...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[x-y-no]

I'm still an el-nino skeptic for this year, but after hearing Dr. Landsea's discussion last night I guess I have to get on the fence.

I think it's a timing thing - if a new kelvin wave forms soon enough and strongly enough to get to the east Pacific before the effects of the current one have dissipated, then we may get enough of a feedback to flip us into an el-nino.

We should have a good idea in maybe a month and a half or so ...