Tropical Cyclone Nancy (18P)

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A15 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/1358 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [935hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 162.1W
AT 141200 UTC MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
CURVE SOUTH. POSITION GOOD BASED GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE,
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 110 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

NANCY HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS,
RESULTING IN A SYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN. THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD
FILLED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, POSSIBLY DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH CMG
SURROUNDING BLACK EYE YIELDING DT=6.0. MET=6.0 AND PAT=6.0. FT BASED
ON DT AND PAT: T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF
STRONG DIFFLUENCE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTORS, ASSISTED BY AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS
LIKELY THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARPENING UPPER
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE FURTHER, CAUSING NANCY TO BEGIN
A WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RECENT MOVEMENT HAS BEEN
TOWARDS THE EAST SOUTHEAST BUT A SOUTHWARD TURN IS FORECAST DUE TO A
MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH
SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH OLAF TO THE
NORTHWEST.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 15.9S 160.4W MOV SSE 12KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 18.1S 160.0W MOV S 12KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 20.6S 160.2W MOV S 12KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 22.0S 160.7W MOV SSW 08KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 142000 UTC.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 15.3S9 160.9W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 160.9W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 17.6S4 159.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 20.1S3 159.3W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 22.0S4 159.9W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 23.5S0 160.2W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 160.5W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
NORTH OF RARATONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102, 115, AND
127 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD
DIVERGENCE WHICH CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM. TC 18P IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN
WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 AND 152100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

125 kts and that will be the peak of the cyclone.

[P.K.]

These two cyclones have certainly grown a lot stronger over the last couple of days.

[senorpepr]

145 mph (one-min avg), but weakening...

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A17 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 15/0202 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [940hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 159.8W
AT 150000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE
SOUTH. CYCLONE WEAKENING. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS CLOSE
TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

NANCY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED AND
RAGGED. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME COLDER. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WHITE SURROUNDING BLACK EYE
YIELDING DT=5.0. MET=4.5 AND PAT=5.0. FT BASED ON DT:
T5.0/6.0/S0.0/24HRS. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTORS. A
SHARPENING TROUGH FROM THE WEST IS ADVECTING INCREASING SHEAR OVER
NANCY AND THE WEAKENING TREND FOR THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
MOVEMENT IS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BUT A SOUTHWARD TURN IS FORECAST
TONIGHT, DUE TO A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH OLAF TO THE
NORTHWEST.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 19.1S 158.8W MOV SSE 15KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 21.4S 158.8W MOV S 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 23.7S 159.4W MOV SSW 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 25.6S 159.8W MOV S 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 150800 UTC.

[HurricaneBill]

Nancy is currently pounding the Cook Islands.

[HurricaneBill]

Despite weakening to a Category 2, Nancy pounded the Cook Islands.

Damage is reported to be widespread but luckily, no reported injuries.

2 down (Meena and Nancy), 1 to go (Olaf).

[senorpepr]

Slowing down to 55mph (1-min avg)

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [975HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4S 159.8W
AT 160600 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CURVE WEST. CYCLONE WEAKENING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
GOES9/10 VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 40 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE, ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

W-NW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STEADILY INCREASING OVER NANCY AS LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ORGANISATION DECREASED RAPIDLY IN PAST 6 HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED SE OF LLCC. SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC <0.5 DEGREE FROM DEEP
CONVECTION YIELDS DT=3.0, MET=3.5 AND PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT, BUT CI
STILL 4.0: T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH BUT
DECREASING ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND OLAF. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON RAPID WEAKENING WITH NANCY'S REMNANTS BEING
ABSORBED INTO CIRCULATION AROUND TC OLAF WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 23.5S 161.2W MOV WSW 08KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 24.0S 162.8W MOV W 08KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
NANCY WEAKENING BELOW TC INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS AS RESIDUAL LLCC
MERGES WITH TC OLAF.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 161400 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A24 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 16/2003 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [985hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4S 161.8W
AT 161800 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CURVE WEST. CYCLONE WEAKENING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9
EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT
50 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE 33
KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION DECREASED RAPIDLY IN PAST 6 HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED SE OF EXPOSED LLCC. WELL DEFINED LLCC FULLY EXPOSED 1.5
DEGREE FROM DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ASSESSMENT YIELDS DT=3.0, MET=3.0
AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT AND MET, CI KEPT AT 3.5:
T3.0/3.5/W1.5/24HRS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH BUT DECREASING
ELSEWHERE. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTHWEST
THEN WEST BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON RAPID WEAKENING WITH NANCY'S REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED INTO
CIRCULATION AROUND TC OLAF WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 25.0S 163.0W MOV SW 12KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 25.3S 164.7W MOV WSW 08KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
NANCY WEAKENING BELOW TC INTENSITY BY 36 HOURS AS RESIDUAL LLCC
MERGES WITH TC OLAF.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 162000 UTC.


HASTA LA VISTA, NANCY

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A25 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 17/0145 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [990hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6S 162.7W
AT 170000 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CURVE WESTSOUTHWEST. CYCLONE WEAKENING. POSITION GOOD BASED
ON GOES9 HRVIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

FULLY EXPOSED LLCC - DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO SOUTHERN QUADRANT
ABOUT 1 DEGREE FROM CENTRE. LLCC STILL WELL DEFINED, BUT SYSTEM
BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL. DVORAK ASSESSMENT YIELDS DT=3.0 FOR WELL
ORGANISED SPIRAL CLOUD LINES, MET=2.5 AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON DT AND
MET, CI KEPT AT 3.0: T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTSOUTHWEST BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON CONTINUED WEAKENING WITH
NANCY'S REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND TC OLAF
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC NEAR 25.3S 165.5W MOV WSW 10KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THIS IS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY ISSUED
BY RSMC NADI.

Well, now is official, Nancy is out of the picture. Fiji announced their final advisory on the system.