Worldwide Tropical Update: 06 February 2005

[senorpepr]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 06 February 2005 at 0000Z.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Meena (07F/15P) (06/0000Z)
Position: 17.4S 162.2W (605 mi SE of Pago Pago, American Samoa)
Movement: SE at 17 mph
Winds: 130 mph
Pressure: 925 mb / 27.32"
Dvorak Est: T6.0/6.0

Meena continues to rapidly intensify. An eye-feature is present and cloud tops in the eye wall are down to –80°C to –85°C. Strong divergence aloft will continue to help the deepening process and the system is expect to top off within the next 24 hours at 150 mph. Thereafter, some slow weakening to begin as the system moves toward cooler waters.

Tropical Depression Noname (13R/91S) (06/0000Z)
Position: 21.6S 57.0E (90 mi SE of Port Louis, Mauritius)
Movement: SW at 9 mph
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59"
Dvorak Est: T2.0/2.0

Convection associated with 13R is fluctuating and is holding it back for deepening. Regardless, some slow strengthening is forecast.

Tropical Cyclone Harvey (06U/16P) (04/1800Z)
Position: 14.0S 139.7E (270 mi NW of Normanton, Australia)
Movement: Stationary
Winds: 45 mph
Pressure: 995 mb / 29.38"
Dvorak Est: T1.5/1.5

Harvey will slowly drift southwestward toward the Queensland and Northern Territory Coast. As this occurs, expect slight strengthening.

For more information on the aforementioned system(s), go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com

[senorpepr]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 06 February 2005 at 1800Z.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Meena (07F/15P) (06/1800Z)
Position: 21.1S 159.3W (680 mi SW of Tahiti, French Polynesia)
Movement: SE at 23 mph
Winds: 150 mph
Pressure: 915 mb / 27.02"
Dvorak Est: T6.0/6.5

The eyewall of Meena has begun to warm and Meena is posed to weaken. Shear is picking up and model guidance agrees on acceleration toward the SE over the next few days. However, parts of the Cook and Austral Islands will have to monitor this system

Tropical Depression Noname (13R/91S) (06/1800Z)
Position: 24.3S 55.7E (295 mi SW of Port Louis, Mauritius)
Movement: WSW at 7 mph
Winds: 40 mph
Pressure: 997 mb / 29.44"
Dvorak Est: Too weak

13R is slowly moving throughout the Indian Ocean thanks to a building ridge. Limited change to strength is expected.

Tropical Cyclone Harvey (06U/16P) (06/1800Z)
Position: 15.0S 139.3E (220 mi NW of Normanton, Australia)
Movement: S at 7 mph
Winds: 60 mph
Pressure: 988 mb / 29.18"
Dvorak Est: T2.5/2.5

Harvey is expect to drift toward the coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria over the next few days while undergoing slight deepening.

For more information on the aforementioned system(s), to include official advisories from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers, go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com

[HURAKAN]

senorpepr, I believe the intensity of TC Harvey is much lowered than what you show, around 45 mph.

[P.K.]

From advisory number 10 from the BOM.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Harvey, Category 2, for 7am EST / 6:30am CST
Central Pressure : 985 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
latitude 15.4 degrees south
longitude 139.2 degrees east
about 140 kilometres north of Mornington Island
Recent Movement : towards the south-southwest at 15 km/hr.
Maximum wind gusts : 125 kilometres per hour, intensifying

85mph looks about right.

Edit - That is only gusts and not sustained, sorry.

[senorpepr]

Whew... good call Sandy. Those were gusts.

I've amended to adjust the winds down to 60 mph.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Harvey 988 hPa centred within 30 nautical miles of 15.0S 139.3E. TC Harvey has moved south at 6 knots recently and is expected to move south to southwestward today.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 45 knots near centre, increasing to 55 knots later today. Clockwise winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre. High seas and moderate to heavy swell.

BoM has the winds at 45kt. If I adjust from ten-minute average to one-minute average, that makes the winds 51kt or 59 mph.