My goodness....

[hurricanetrack]

Check this out from the latest TWD:

ATLANTIC WEST OF 45W...
A NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 300 NM
ESE OF BERMUDA WITH A DEEPENING 993 MB STORM FORCE LOW.
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS E TO NEAR 31N47W WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING SWD ALONG 27N46W 22N50W 18N60W THEN WEAKENING TO
THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N70W. ONLY A NARROW 30 NM WIDE BAND
OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE COLD FRONT. A
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS NOTED W OF THE FRONT TO THE
BAHAMAS. WHILE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS/LIFT WITH THIS PATTERN IS
CONFINED N OF THE AREA...INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
CORE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED CELLS OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 50W-65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEEPENING AS A
SHORTWAVE FEATURE SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SEWD. GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE AND RELATIVE
SLOW MOTION OF THIS STRONG SURFACE LOW...A SIGNIFICANT SWELL
EVENT...PERHAPS REACHING 20 FT...SHOULD UNFOLD ESPECIALLY W OF
60W WHERE THE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A NLY COMPONENT.


That's a huge storm in the Atlantic. Luis- let us know if you see any swell from that thing- and I'll do the same here along the coast of NC.

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HIGH SURF ADVISORY
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST THU FEB 3 2005

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-002-032200-
CULEBRA-VIEQUES-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-NORTH
CENTRAL-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-ST THOMAS...ST JOHN...AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
410 AM AST THU FEB 3 2005

...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALONG THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING
COASTS IN THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IN PUERTO RICO

CULEBRA...VIEQUES...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...NORTHEAST...
NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

ST THOMAS...ST JOHN...AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS AND ST CROIX

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND OUTER WATERS...

LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS BEGAN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES YESTERDAY AND HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY BUILDING. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH
TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THESE 6 TO 8 FOOT SWELLS EVERY 11 TO 12 SECONDS WILL INITIALLY
PRODUCE BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 14 FEET ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS...
BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AS THESE SWELLS
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AT LEAST 8 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE BREAKING WAVES WILL REACH 12 TO 16 FEET OR HIGHER.
THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE
GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.
PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES
SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES INTO
THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY OFF
OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE HEIGHTS AND TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 0.7 FEET AT 2:41 PM TODAY
1.5 FEET AT 5:09 AM FRIDAY
MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 0.9 FEET AT 5:17 AM TODAY
1.1 FEET AT 6:13 AM FRIDAY

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
ON THIS DANGEROUS MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.


Already one tourist drowned in a beach as he was swept away by the huge waves and rip currents.

[Stormsfury]

The oceanic low came about at the end of last week (and the same one that was responsible for the icestorm in the SE last weekend.)

[cycloneye]

RMKS/1. THIS WARNING IS VALID FOR 040600Z FEB 05.
2. WARNINGS ARE FOR OVER WATER AREAS BUT ARE DESCRIBED FOR BREVITY
AND MAY OVERLAP SOME LAND MASSES OR AREAS OF LESSER WINDS/SEAS.
3. WIND WARNINGS EFFECTIVE FOR 12 HRS COMMENCING 040600Z FEB 05.
A. GALE WARNING FOR NORTH ATLANTIC.
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NORTH AT 40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS.
AREA QUASI-STATIONARY AND DECREASING.
AREA OF 35 KT WINDS AND GREATER OVER WATER BOUNDED BY:
80.0N8 001.0E1, 76.0N3 004.0W4, 77.0N4 010.0E1, 80.0N8 001.0E1.
B. GALE WARNING FOR NORTH ATLANTIC.
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS.
AREA QUASI-STATIONARY AND DECREASING.
AREA OF 35 KT WINDS AND GREATER OVER WATER BOUNDED BY:
69.0N5 005.0E5, 70.0N7 002.0E2, 66.0N2 005.0W5, 62.0N8 003.0W3, TO
THE COAST NEAR 62.0N8 006.7W3 THENCE COASTAL TO 62.0N8 006.9W5,
62.0N8 005.0E5, TO THE COAST NEAR 62.1N9 005.2E7 THENCE COASTAL TO
62.2N0 005.3E8, TO THE COAST NEAR 66.5N7 013.1E5 THENCE COASTAL TO
66.6N8 013.2E6, TO THE COAST NEAR 66.7N9 013.4E8 THENCE COASTAL TO
67.1N4 014.1E6, TO THE COAST NEAR 67.3N6 014.5E0 THENCE COASTAL TO
67.5N8 015.1E7, TO THE COAST NEAR 67.7N0 015.5E1 THENCE COASTAL TO
68.0N4 016.0E7, TO THE COAST NEAR 68.1N5 016.1E8 THENCE COASTAL TO
68.0N4 016.0E7, TO THE COAST NEAR 68.1N5 015.6E2 THENCE COASTAL TO
68.2N6 015.3E9, TO THE COAST NEAR 68.3N7 014.9E4 THENCE COASTAL TO
68.4N8 014.5E0, 69.0N5 012.0E3, 66.0N2 004.0E4, 69.0N5 005.0E5.
C. GALE WARNING FOR NORTH ATLANTIC.
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS WEST AT 40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS.
AREA QUASI-STATIONARY AND DECREASING.
AREA OF 35 KT WINDS AND GREATER OVER WATER BOUNDED BY:
67.0N3 055.0W0, 67.0N3 058.0W3, 61.0N7 054.0W9, 67.0N3 055.0W0.
D. GALE WARNING FOR NORTH ATLANTIC.
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS SOUTH AT 40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS.
AREA MOVING NORTH AND MAINTAINING.
AREA OF 35 KT WINDS AND GREATER OVER WATER BOUNDED BY:
32.0N5 051.0W6, 32.0N5 047.0W1, 25.0N7 047.0W1, 32.0N5 051.0W6.
4. HIGH SEAS WARNING EFFECTIVE FOR 12 HRS COMMENCING 040600Z
FEB 05.
A. HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR NORTH ATLANTIC .
MAX SEAS 28 FT.
SEAS 24 FT OR GREATER BOUNDED BY:
66.0N2 001.0W1, 65.0N1 002.0E2, 63.0N9 001.0W1, 66.0N2 001.0W1.
SEAS 18 FT OR GREATER BOUNDED BY:
67.0N3 001.0E1, 62.0N8 013.0W4, 58.0N3 031.0W4, 55.0N0 028.0W0,
57.0N2 014.0W5, 60.0N6 002.0W2, TO THE COAST NEAR 60.3N9 001.6W7
THENCE COASTAL TO 60.4N0 001.4W5, TO THE COAST NEAR 60.4N0 001.3W4
THENCE COASTAL TO 60.6N2 000.9W9, TO THE COAST NEAR 60.7N3 000.8W8
THENCE COASTAL TO 60.8N4 000.7W7, 67.0N3 001.0E1.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER BOUNDED BY:
67.0N3 024.0W6, 64.0N0 034.0W7, 56.0N1 039.0W2, 52.0N7 029.0W1,
53.0N8 011.0W2, TO THE COAST NEAR 54.3N2 010.0W1 THENCE COASTAL TO
54.4N3 009.9W8, TO THE COAST NEAR 57.5N7 007.3W0 THENCE COASTAL TO
57.7N9 007.2W9, TO THE COAST NEAR 57.8N0 007.0W7 THENCE COASTAL TO
57.9N1 007.0W7, TO THE COAST NEAR 58.0N3 006.9W5 THENCE COASTAL TO
58.4N7 006.6W2, 59.0N4 006.0W6, TO THE COAST NEAR 60.0N6 001.3W4
THENCE COASTAL TO 60.0N6 001.1W2, 61.0N7 004.0E4, TO THE COAST NEAR
61.7N4 005.2E7 THENCE COASTAL TO 63.0N9 007.6E3, TO THE COAST NEAR
63.5N4 008.5E3 THENCE COASTAL TO 63.7N6 009.0E9, TO THE COAST NEAR
64.9N9 011.4E6 THENCE COASTAL TO 65.0N1 011.5E7, TO THE COAST NEAR
65.3N4 012.2E5 THENCE COASTAL TO 70.6N3 024.2E8, TO THE COAST NEAR
70.6N3 024.3E9 THENCE COASTAL TO 71.0N8 025.3E0, TO THE COAST NEAR
71.1N9 025.5E2 THENCE COASTAL TO 71.2N0 025.8E5, 72.0N9 028.0E0,
74.0N1 006.0E6, 77.0N4 002.0E2, 72.0N9 009.0W9, 69.0N5 002.0E2,
65.0N1 010.0W1, 63.0N9 019.0W0, 67.0N3 024.0W6.
AREA QUASI-STATIONARY AND DECREASING.
B. HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR NORTH ATLANTIC .
MAX SEAS 14 FT.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER BOUNDED BY:
67.0N3 055.0W0, 66.0N2 058.0W3, 59.0N4 057.0W2, 67.0N3 055.0W0.
AREA QUASI-STATIONARY AND DECREASING.
C. HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR NORTH ATLANTIC.
MAX SEAS 21 FT.
SEAS 18 FT OR GREATER BOUNDED BY:
40.0N4 055.0W0, 39.0N2 064.0W0, 34.0N7 071.0W8, 40.0N4 055.0W0.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER BOUNDED BY:
43.0N7 038.0W1, 44.0N8 044.0W8, 40.0N4 046.0W0, 41.0N5 051.0W6,
44.0N8 059.0W4, 41.0N5 069.0W5, 36.0N9 075.0W2, TO THE COAST NEAR
35.3N1 075.5W7 THENCE COASTAL TO 35.2N0 075.5W7, 31.0N4 078.0W5,
24.0N6 076.0W3, TO THE COAST NEAR 23.6N1 075.3W5 THENCE COASTAL TO
23.5N0 075.3W5, TO THE COAST NEAR 23.5N0 075.2W4 THENCE COASTAL TO
23.4N9 075.0W2, TO THE COAST NEAR 22.8N2 074.2W3 THENCE COASTAL TO
22.5N9 073.7W7, 20.0N2 070.0W7, 19.0N0 063.0W9, 22.0N4 053.0W8,
27.0N9 048.0W2, 34.0N7 048.0W2, 34.0N7 051.0W6, 27.0N9 052.0W7,
26.0N8 058.0W3, 28.0N0 062.0W8, 33.0N6 058.0W3, 37.0N0 052.0W7,
38.0N1 045.0W9, 43.0N7 038.0W1.
AREA QUASI-STATIONARY AND MAINTAINING.
5. WAVE HEIGHTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD (1/3)
OF COMBINED SEA AND SWELL. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER.
6. NEXT SCHEDULED WARNING, WWNT31 KNGU WILL BE VALID AT
041800Z./
BT



That impressive low if it were a warm core tropical system it would be a tropical storm as it has sustained winds of 40-45 knots and that is why a Gale Warning has been issued for all marine interests to be aware.

[Persepone]

Here on Cape Cod we expect high winds, "splashover" at high tide and some beach erosion from this storm...

[george_r_1961]

Tis the season for nor easters fa la la la la..la la la la

Seriously its that time of year again

[HalloweenGale]

you think its funny do you? well it isnt.

[vbhoutex]

you think its funny do you? well it isnt.

Chill out HG!!!!

[cycloneye]

Finnally the gale center low is lifting out to the NE.Seas here will subside tommorow however a new low now at the west atlantic east of Jacksonville will cause again high seas but this low will not be as strong as the other gale center which the pressure went down yesterday to 989 mbs.

[wxvine]

Shot some video today of some pretty impressive swells and beach erosion from Ft Pierce Inlet, Florida.

http://www.stormvideographer.com/020405.html

Jeff Gammons

[msbee]

very impressive video! thanks!
the sea is wild here in St. maarten too
it doesn't seem to have calmed down yet
when can we expect the sea to subside, cycloneye?

[cycloneye]

very impressive video! thanks!
the sea is wild here in St. maarten too
it doesn't seem to have calmed down yet
when can we expect the sea to subside, cycloneye?

Dont expect seas to subside bigtime in the next couple of days but by mid to late in the week they will slowly go down.

[msbee]

looks like another planned boating day shot to hell