The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 01 February 2005 at 0000Z.
Tropical Depression Noname (95S/MFR-12) (01/0000Z)
Position: 17.6S 64.9E (510 mi NE of Port Louis, Mauritius)
Movement: Stationary
Winds: 35 mph
Pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59"
Dvorak Est: 1.0/1.0
95S/12R is continuing SW. The system looks more like a monsoonal trough and the strongest winds are confined to the convective bands. Meanwhile, the JTWC has dropped their TCFA for this system.
Tropical Cyclone Lola (96P/FMS-06) (01/0000Z)
Position: 23.5S 175.6W (135 mi NW of Nuku’alufa, Tonga)
Movement: SE at 12 mph
Winds: 45 mph
Pressure: 994 mb / 29.35"
Dvorak Est: 2.5/2.5
Lola is continuing SE, but not without running into some dry air. This dry air is entrained into Lola’s southwestern quadrant. Satellite imagery shows a very weak system and it appears as if FMS may be over-forecasting Lola’s strength. Model guidance indicates slow weakening.
For more information on the aforementioned system(s), go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com
Worldwide Tropical Update: 01 February 2005
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senorpepr
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Worldwide Tropical Update: 01 February 2005
Last edited by senorpepr on Tue Feb 01, 2005 7:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
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The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 01 February 2005 at 1800Z.
Subtropical Depression Felapi (94S/MFR-11) (01/1800Z)
Position: 27.8S 49.8E (490 mi SE of Toliara, Madahascar)
Movement: SE at 4 mph
Winds: 40 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71"
Dvorak Est: Too weak
Felapi is continuing SE. This will keep it away from Madagascar. Meanwhile over the next 36 hours, expect the system to dissipate as a hybrid system.
Tropical Depression Noname (95S/97S/MFR-12) (01/1800Z)
Position: 19.0S 64.2E (435 mi ENE of Port Louis, Mauritius)
Movement: SSE at 9 mph
Winds: 35 mph
Pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59"
Dvorak Est: Too weak
JTWC and NRL appears to not have their mind set on this system. Formally 95S, now listed as 97S, and as known as 12R, is continuing SSE. This system looks as a large monsoonal depression, with the strongest band of winds displaces far from the center. With dry air intruding into the mid and upper levels, expect limited changes over the next few days. Regardless, 12R will continue to move slowly, bring heavy rains to the Mascarenes Islands.
Tropical Cyclone Lola (96P/FMS-06) (01/1800Z)
Position: 25.1S 174.5W (270 mi SE of Nuku’alufa, Tonga)
Movement: SSE at 6 mph
Winds: 45 mph
Pressure: 995 mb / 29.38"
Dvorak Est: 1.0/2.0
Lola is continuing SSE, but is expected to shift toward the SW. Deep convection associated with Lola is removed to the SE of the center. Outflow aloft is restricted in the SW quadrant, but appear good elsewhere. Expect Lola to continue weakening over the next couple days. Also, FMS has issued their final advisory on Lola and is being passed onto MSNZ.
For more information on the aforementioned system(s), go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com
Subtropical Depression Felapi (94S/MFR-11) (01/1800Z)
Position: 27.8S 49.8E (490 mi SE of Toliara, Madahascar)
Movement: SE at 4 mph
Winds: 40 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71"
Dvorak Est: Too weak
Felapi is continuing SE. This will keep it away from Madagascar. Meanwhile over the next 36 hours, expect the system to dissipate as a hybrid system.
Tropical Depression Noname (95S/97S/MFR-12) (01/1800Z)
Position: 19.0S 64.2E (435 mi ENE of Port Louis, Mauritius)
Movement: SSE at 9 mph
Winds: 35 mph
Pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59"
Dvorak Est: Too weak
JTWC and NRL appears to not have their mind set on this system. Formally 95S, now listed as 97S, and as known as 12R, is continuing SSE. This system looks as a large monsoonal depression, with the strongest band of winds displaces far from the center. With dry air intruding into the mid and upper levels, expect limited changes over the next few days. Regardless, 12R will continue to move slowly, bring heavy rains to the Mascarenes Islands.
Tropical Cyclone Lola (96P/FMS-06) (01/1800Z)
Position: 25.1S 174.5W (270 mi SE of Nuku’alufa, Tonga)
Movement: SSE at 6 mph
Winds: 45 mph
Pressure: 995 mb / 29.38"
Dvorak Est: 1.0/2.0
Lola is continuing SSE, but is expected to shift toward the SW. Deep convection associated with Lola is removed to the SE of the center. Outflow aloft is restricted in the SW quadrant, but appear good elsewhere. Expect Lola to continue weakening over the next couple days. Also, FMS has issued their final advisory on Lola and is being passed onto MSNZ.
For more information on the aforementioned system(s), go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com
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