If Ivan took this path= total devestation. Fl was lucky.

[EWRC]

Despite the damage from the surge and wind from Ivan Florida was very lucky with this storm. If Ivan would have took the predicted path which was similar to Hurricane Donna in 1960 the entire Florida west coast would have been devestated. Just imagine if Ivan would have hit the Keys as predicted hundreds would have died, and the entire SW Florida coast would have been smashed by a large storm surge, and winds of major hurricane force as Ivan would move just offshore and make landfall in the Tampa area. Not only would Key west been wiped out but sustained winds or 120 plus mph would smash the coast as Ivan would move just offshore. People on the FL westcoast should feel very lucky.

[EWRC]

For some reason the image is not showing but just go to the direct link.
http://www.zippyimages.com/3287.html

Its a snapshot of the NHC 5 day forecast track I took. You can also go to the NHC site and you can animate the forecast tracks.

[yoda]

True.. but then Ivan would not have undergone such an intense RIC...

[Derek Ortt]

there would not have been any surge at all for the WC, none higher than Charley.

Great One, two things to remember

1. Much of the WC had been completely destroyed, Ivan does almost 0 damage if it comes in at Charlotte Harbor because there was nothing left to damage

2. Ivan would have remained over the shelf waters and approached at even even more acute angle than did Charley, thus, nearly zippo on the surge

[yoda]

there would not have been any surge at all for the WC, none higher than Charley.

Great One, two things to remember

1. Much of the WC had been completely destroyed, Ivan does almost 0 damage if it comes in at Charlotte Harbor because there was nothing left to damage

2. Ivan would have remained over the shelf waters and approached at even even more acute angle than did Charley, thus, nearly zippo on the surge

Correct. In addition Derek, Ivan would have become a Cat 2 at most when striking FL right? That would be due to the fact it crosses Cuba and does not have enough time to restrengthen.

[MGC]

Charley crossed Cuba as a cat 2 and came ashore as a cat 4 so saying Ivan would not have restrenghten just ain't true.....MGC

[yoda]

Charley crossed Cuba as a cat 2 and came ashore as a cat 4 so saying Ivan would not have restrenghten just ain't true.....MGC

They would have crossed Cuba at different places. Ivan would have crossed Cuba where at least part of a mtn range was.

[EWRC]

there would not have been any surge at all for the WC, none higher than Charley.

Great One, two things to remember

1. Much of the WC had been completely destroyed, Ivan does almost 0 damage if it comes in at Charlotte Harbor because there was nothing left to damage

2. Ivan would have remained over the shelf waters and approached at even even more acute angle than did Charley, thus, nearly zippo on the surge

Only parts with major damage were Charlotte county, Lee county along the coast. Also there are multi million dollar homes in Naples which would have been wiped out be intense wind. Also I disagree with you derek about the surge. When Donna hit in 1960 Naples High School which is on the other side of 41 a little more then a mile Inland was under 7 feet of water. I dont know Derek how often you go over to the naples area, Everglades city, but along Naples bay some of the houses sit just feet from the water. Even a storm surge of 6 or 7 feet like Charley would cause billions of dollars in damage in the Naples Marco area due to the massive population boom and the huge million dollar homes. Ilived down there for 11 years, and know the entire area from left to right. Its assanine how much the houses and property are worth in collier county now. If you get time Derek go over and take a boat tour of Naples bay, and Port Royal in the summer when season is over and everyone is back up north and you will see just how vunerable Naples is. There is a place across the Tin City shops that gives boat tours of Port Royal and Naples bay.

[EWRC]

Charley crossed Cuba as a cat 2 and came ashore as a cat 4 so saying Ivan would not have restrenghten just ain't true.....MGC

True. Also Ivan was moving slower so he would have more time over the straights.

[Derek Ortt]

Cuba does not weaken hurricanes at all. Ivan would have been a 4 had it have hit the WC

Donna also sat over Naples for 24 hours, so there was a long duration. Ivan would not have done that. Easily would have been a Charley type surge. Also, Donna came right in nearly perpendicular while Charley made that unexplainable wobble, to bring the storm in at a 20 degree angle, cutting the surge in half

[EWRC]

Cuba does not weaken hurricanes at all. Ivan would have been a 4 had it have hit the WC

Donna also sat over Naples for 24 hours, so there was a long duration. Ivan would not have done that. Easily would have been a Charley type surge. Also, Donna came right in nearly perpendicular while Charley made that unexplainable wobble, to bring the storm in at a 20 degree angle, cutting the surge in half

Also I disagree with the new HRD best track of Donna. Donna was stronger then 115mph over naples. Ive seen a few wind obs from Donna in Naples. Just the winds alone if Ivan was a cat4 would do billions in damage to those million dollar homes.