More activity at WPAC apart from Muifa

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N1
141.7E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5N7 139.03, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES A POSSIBLE LLCC AT THIS LOCATION AS WELL. 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

The WPAC is the most active basin in the world where all year around you can see tropical cyclones.And now a disturbance is trying to organize into a Tropical Cyclone SW of Guam.

[Gorky]

There is a huge chunk of convection just about to pass into the West Pacific too which looks good for development if it moves a little further north (Only at 7N atm) It's 96C.Invest, soon to be 97W.Invest
I'm think outflow from Muifa may have an adverse effect on 95W which I guess is a good thing if you are in it's path. Saying that, Muifa doesn't have much easterly outflow at all looking at sat images.

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, 7N is a good latitude for formation in WPAC this time of year. Unlike the ATL, storms can form below 10N in WPAC and routinely do so during the early and late parts of the season. The reason being that the horizontal shear present in the Near Equatorial Trough can easily spin up a system in the absence of Coriolis. Generally, though, storms in WPAC won't form below 5N very often though they have formed as low as 1.5N. We have even seen Supers below 10N and in 1970 one hit Mindanao with 130kt winds south of Davao at latitude 6N.

Steve