Fiji Tropical Disturbance Summary

[Anonymous]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Apr 13/0844 UTC 2003 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 15F [1005 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18S 173W AT 130530 UTC.
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIGH RES
GOES/GMS IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SYNOPTIC REPORTS. CONVECTION IS POORLY
ORGANISED WITH MAJOR CONVECTION LOCATED SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. LLCC POORLY DEFINED. DISTURBANCE LIES JUST SOUTH OF A 250 HPA OUTFLOW
CENTRE IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 30C.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
POTENTIAL FOR 15F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.

SECOND TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 16F [1004 HPA] NEAR 13.5S 178.0W AT 130530 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HIGH RES GMS IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SYNOPTIC REPORTS.
DISTURBANCE SLOW MOVING. CONVECTION POORLY ORGANISED BUT SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE
EVIDENT. SYSTEM LIES IN AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
30C. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT CAPTURED THE SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[Anonymous]

From the JTWC...

UNCLAS //N03145//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN REISSUED/131630Z/140600ZAPR2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZAPR2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
ABPW10 PGTW 131630
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 131200Z7, TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
10.1N2 148.9E2, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (WTPN31 PGTW 131500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S9
179.4W1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8 178.5W1, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE, WHILE CONTINUING TO TURN CYCLONICALLY INWARD TOWARD THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL
OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
BASED ON INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR AREA.
4. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: INGRAM/WAUGAMAN/EDBERG//

[Anonymous]

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

[Anonymous]

After looking at some of the latest model runs, if this low were to develop into a tropical cyclone, it wouldn't last for long. Over the next few days, a larger nontropical low located further south will absorb the system.

[Aslkahuna]

out on this system which appears to be located in the tail end of a frontal trough. The horizontal shear in the the area should be favorable for development, but the proximity of the cooler air behind the front is a negative factor.

Steve

[Anonymous]

The JTWC has decided to issue a TCFA...

WTPS21 PGTW 132330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 132321ZAPR2003//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S3 179.4W1 TO 18.4S3
174.5W7 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 132030Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 178.4W0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8
178.5W1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 178.4W0, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE, WHILE CONTINUING TO TURN CYCLONICALLY INWARD TOWARD THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL
OVER THE AREA. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL IS
APPARENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA, HELPING TO ACCENTUATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004
MB. BASED ON CONTINUED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142330Z3.
4. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//

NNNN