More evidence of el nino weakening

[cycloneye]

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif

This loop shows that the warm sopt in el nino 3-4 is getting more smaller and the cool waters off southamerica is getting larger.

[Rainband]

Thanks cyc. I actually figured it was weakening too, not because I am a weather expert. I leave that to you and the others. Just because we started our winter extremely wet and then poof no more rain. In elnino winters we get lots of it. So this might have started as an elnino winter but faded fast

[mf_dolphin]

It's going to be interesting to see if neutral or la Nina conditions develop as we get closer to the start of the season. If only we had a crystal ball

[Rainband]

I say LaNina but just a gut feeling not an expert opinion

[Anonymous]

Sea surface temperatures in the central and western Pacific are still slightly warmer than average. As a result, you can still expect somewhat of an El Nino like pattern. The subtropical jet is expected to make a comeback over the next few days, bringing some much needed rain to parts of the southeast.

It's going to be interesting to see if neutral or la Nina conditions develop as we get closer to the start of the season. If only we had a crystal ball

As supercane and I posted in our last two preliminary updates, we strongly believe that at least weak La Nina conditions will be present by the peak of the 2003 hurricane season.

[Rainband]

Off subject; but do you think, the fact that florida has been lucky for so long ,increases our chances of a cane? If so explain thanks

[Anonymous]

Off subject; but do you think, the fact that florida has been lucky for so long ,increases our chances of a cane? If so explain thanks

Being overdue for a hurricane shouldn't change your chances for a major hurricane IMO. If the factors look to support a better chance of a FL hurricane in a year, then thats that; you're at a greater chance. Regardless of being overdue or not. For instance, lets get back to the subject of offseason storms. The truth is, we are well overdue for an offseason TC in the Atlantic basin. But now if it looks like the conditions are going to be too hostile in a particular offseason, than just that decreases the chance of an offseason storm that year.

[Rainband]

As always, thanks for the information Keep us informed 8)

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Hello Cycloneye! This is your old friend Cycloman...

Hello everyone on the board.

Just like you I am observing ENSO conditions and proyections already and agree that we'll see the begining of a cooling tendency of El nino during the next months into a neutral conditions/weak la nina during next summer-fall making this a posible enhancing factor for Atlantic hurricane activity during next season. We are still on February, 3 months untill the begining of the 2003 season, so we have enough time to study and observe ENSO to reach better conclusions before june 1rst.

Just like El nino, there are other factors that influence cyclogenesis in the Atlantic and need to be observed and studied too, so I will continue my research on this matter and just like you and the great forecasters on this exelent website, will have my own complete review and forecast for next season by the months of April/May. Until then, keep up the good work!

I hope everyone had a great christmas time and survived the cold

Greetings!!

Cycloman.


Note...I am terribly sorry for the good people of Space Shuttle Columbia and hope their souls rest in peace...Also prey for them and hope for peace for their families.

[Rainband]

Welcome back Cycloman, thanks for the input and your kind thoughts on the columbia crew and families Hope you had happy holidays also

[cycloneye]

Welcome back Cycloman and from now on let's work on the anaylisis of the factors that will guide what will the 2003 season will be.

I will colaborate with you on anything you may ask and about my forecast it will come out at may 1.

[mf_dolphin]

Great to see you Cycloman! The clocks ticking down to the hurricane season