Blob watch at SW caribbean

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cycloneye
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Blob watch at SW caribbean

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 17, 2004 8:09 am

Image

Image

That area of convection is ITCZ related.The water vapor pic shows plenty of subsidence in a big area of the caribbean sea..The key for this convection complex to do something that may turn cyclonic is to persist for 24-48 hours,have pressure falls in the area,have an anticyclonic area aloft and dont have too much upper shear.Let's see if this area poofs during the day or mantains much longer to then take a second look.
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#2 Postby yoda » Sun Oct 17, 2004 8:10 am

Good call Luis. I have been watching this area as well... :D
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#3 Postby TS Zack » Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:37 am

No Shear, a bunch of precipitable water, but some dry air. The blob is still connected to the ITCZ. If something were to form it would just move into Central America and head into the EPAC.
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#4 Postby msbee » Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:53 am

and what is all that stuff to the East of the islands, Luis?
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#5 Postby TS Zack » Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:07 am

That is a Upper-level Low interacting with a Tropical Wave. Luis doesn't look like that Tropical Wave will survive the tremendous shear it has to get through to get to the Caribbean.
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 17, 2004 11:28 am

msbee wrote:and what is all that stuff to the East of the islands, Luis?


Nothing to worrie about there.Tremendous shear,dry air and already mid-latitud systems in tropical atlantic.So I say in bold no more tropical development east of the islands in 2004. :)
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#7 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:18 pm

To much dry air to its north and east.
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:22 pm

The most energy there is going to the EPAC.
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#9 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:The most energy there is going to the EPAC.



Yes it does look that way. I wonder if this could shift over there and develop into anything.
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#10 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:01 pm

I like the curved shape, but the main depth is obviously across and over into EPAC...
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#11 Postby Anonymous » Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:06 pm

I have seen this coming since Matthew was a wave. THis is the system I've talked about.
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#12 Postby Stormtrack03 » Sun Oct 17, 2004 7:12 pm

I don't see notta.
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#13 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sun Oct 17, 2004 8:29 pm

Well it looks to be mostly on the E-Pac side now.
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#14 Postby Anonymous » Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:39 pm

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#15 Postby yoda » Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:45 pm

But that is the GFS... :lol: :P
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:33 am

As I said yesterday it is ITCZ related and most of the energy has gone into the EPAC but still another area of convection has emerged from Colombia this morning but without any organization.
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#17 Postby x-y-no » Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:40 am

cycloneye wrote:As I said yesterday it is ITCZ related and most of the energy has gone into the EPAC but still another area of convection has emerged from Colombia this morning but without any organization.


Agreed - no organization now. But there is a a weak wave coming along. See the other thread I just started.
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:42 am

x-y-no wrote:
cycloneye wrote:As I said yesterday it is ITCZ related and most of the energy has gone into the EPAC but still another area of convection has emerged from Colombia this morning but without any organization.


Agreed - no organization now. But there is a a weak wave coming along. See the other thread I just started.


Yes I read it and I agree.Let's see how things evolve in the caribbean in the comming days.
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#19 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 18, 2004 11:12 am

Looks like another pulse jumped off Colombia. I always like a wave that looks 'round'...


.
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