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Not just war stuff on cnn site
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Not just war stuff on cnn site
FORT COLLINS, Colorado (AP) -- The 2003 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be twice as severe as last year, forecasters said.
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WEATHER/04/05/h ... index.html
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Gray always gets a lot of attention in April and May. In case you missed the detailed discussion...
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... april2003/
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... april2003/
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That's typical media hype there! Although I think that season is worthy of some "punchlines", consider how CNN got that statement. William Gray did not say "The 2003 hurricane season will be severe," although factors do point to a strong hurricane season. Instead, the CNN editor said "Twice as severe as last year with twice as many hurricanes." Just because there will likely be twice as many (or more) hurricanes this season than last does not mean you can call the season severe. What percentage of the hurricanes this year that DO make landfall will determine whether the season is severe or not. Reminds me of the hype the 2000 season saw.
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- cycloneye
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Kevin I agree iwth you on the point of big wishcasting this season due to the 5 day forecast.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Just Read the Forecast From Gray
I finally got to read the forecast from Gray, though I still need to digest some things. He has thrown out the West African rainfall factor, but has not considered the Caribbean SLPA into his schema which looks to be another + up! All in all he alludes to the possibility that he may be underestimating this years activity, but will hold the line on the forecast. He states "We do not feel that our statistical scheme fully accounts for all the positive environmental conditions that will likely be in place." HHMMM, and these analog years produced the likes of Mitch. I have to read into this a bit more, but I feel that the Cape Verde season could be active as well. There are a lot of positive factors for this season. Let's see what data and patterns that we see are/aren't on track with his thinking during the next few months. Forget CNN, they will twist any number they can. If there was one hurricane last year , they would still say 2003 will be twice as deadly, but Joe Schmoe wouldn't remember last year. Cheers!!
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Well, if only two hurricanes hit the US coastline this comming season then is essence, it will be twice as busy. The media hypes the news, that is their business. They (media) want you to take time out of your important day to watch or listen to them. Headlines draw in the viewers, up go the ratings, more advertisment dollars. But, considering that only one hurricane has struck the US in three years I think the US is long overdue for a series of hurricanes. Of course, this is just a gut felling I have. Mother Nature has her ways of balancing her numbers.
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