Matthew Shattered

[Sanibel]

I'm trying to figure out what happened to Matthew. Last night it looked like the CDO burst was going to take him up a notch. Instead he was blown apart.

I suppose the shear did increase and blew his top off causing the weak center to bump poleward. The energy was so dispersed that when he landed he couldn't re-organize. The killer being dry air being shunted in from behind from the Texas side.

I doubt he'll reorganize into any of that convection south. He's redistributed some energy into that linear front and is sort of a half cold front like feature coming in from the west now. The shear came up and over him from Mexico like a continental cross current....

His only chance would be sudden favorability, but that isn't predicted to happen. GFDL bust this time...

[lilbump3000]

I think he might be upgraded again to a weak tropical storm. Once recon goes in there im sure they will find tropical storm force winds in the thunderstorms that keep fireing up around the center.

[Sanibel]

His center is now so disorganized that it makes me wonder if he isn't trying to relocate? We saw this center definition loss last night before the eclipse. I thought it was a sign of strengthening. Obviously it was the opposite! As for this latest center loss, with what he has done already I think it would indicate a complete wipe out at this point. He was too weak for the shear and the cold dry air was the final straw...

[weatherlover427]

Why must we always be so quick to mention sh3@r and w3@k3n1ng?

[Sanibel]

Well, after looking at a visible loop the center is still there. Its only chance is sliding east to get out from under the worst shear and wrap. Guess it won't do that.

Sheared and weak, that's all Josh!

[weatherlover427]

Eh? Speak plain English, I didn't get that.

It may not be a perfect storm for intensification purposes, yes; but it certainly has at least some potential...

[Sanibel]

If you'll notice the dry slot has invaded in a curl inside the center spiral. This is a sign of dry air invasion of the core which will take the cyclone down. A weak cyclone can withstand some shear, and a weak cyclone can withstand some dry air - but both at the same time is a storm killer.

The only hope for Matthew is to pull east and stay offshore so the shear can relax and he can beat that dry border impacting his west side...

[WeatherEmperor]

It still has some time to go back up to TS strenght but if the shear stays the way it is then maybe it wont. No matter what happens, people in its path need to get ready for a rain event cause that is the worst part of this, not whether it stays a TD or goes to a TS.

<RICKY>

[ColdFront77]

Gulf of Mexico Shear Tendency Map