5:45 PM EDT Storm2k forecast for Tropical Storm Matthew

[cycloneye]

As I forecasted this morning as soon recon flys into the system they would find a tropical storm and that was what they found.This morning it was a TD but not a pure tropical system but this afternoon sat pics and surface observations indicate that a more warm core system is in the GOM but still not a complete pure tropical system.The main threat from this storm will be the copius amounts of rain it will fall in a big area of the gulf coast and further inland.The center is not important in this case because it will not be a strong storm windwise but the rain will be the main threat combined with possible tornadoes that will form when the storm makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle.My forecast for landfall of the center is near Panama City but again the center is not the main issue but the big area of rain that Matthew has.My intensity forecast for Matthew is for the storm to peak at 45kts at landfall.

Disclaimer=This forecast is exclusivly from this forecaster and is not official.The official source is the National Hurricane Center.

Forecaster=Luis Martinez (Cycloneye)

[JenyEliza]

Once we have "landfall" of whatever Matthew happens to be when he hits land, where do you see him moving to? Is this a FL/AL/GA event (as it appears to this untrained lay person)? I'm not seeing any guidance on this from Peachtree City NWS (my local WS).

If it is a FL/AL/GA event, is flooding the most serious risk far inland? How much rain should we be ready to see? After what Frances, Jeanne (and mostly) Ivan did to us (nearly a foot of rain in Sept), I'm not sure we can handle anymore rain.

Just curious as to your thoughts on this.

Thanks!

Jeny