The beginnings of a powerful gale in the Atlantic...Nicole

[Hyperstorm]

Time for the NHC to shift its attention from whatever mess is east of the islands to the Western Atlantic.

A very strong area of low pressure is developing as I type just south of the islands of Bermuda. This is likely what has been consistently forecast by most of the guidance models to develop and it should be the beginnings of a powerful gale center over the North Atlantic. Upper-Level Winds appear favorable for a transition to occur.

Regardless, tropical or not, it is a potentially dangerous system for Bermuda. Watch out...

[hiflyer]

agreed...was just on the island last week and the locals all say October is the normally bigger month for them. Biggest problem this will be is it probably will cut off air service there...only one runway on the whole island so crosswinds will stop service.

Bermuda Public Forecast
Issued at 11:30 am - Friday, 8th October, 2004

Small Craft Warning (Valid for Friday, extended into Saturday)

Headline - Windy start to weekend...

Public Synopsis - Winds will continue to increase into the weekend, as high pressure builds to our northwest, and a low pressure system deepens to our southeast. As the low nears the Island on Saturday, wet and windy weather will likely become more widespread.

Today - Partly sunny becoming cloudy and developing isolated showers... Winds strong northeasterly... High near 82°.

Tonight - Mostly cloudy with isolated showers... Winds strong northeasterly... Low near 74°.

Saturday - Mostly cloudy and breezy with widespread showers... Winds strong northeasterly... High near 82°.

Sunday - Partly cloudy with intermittent showers... Winds strong north-northeasterly, backing northerly... Low near 73°, high near 82°.

Monday - Sunny breaks with a chance of showers... Winds strong northerly, backing northwesterly... Low near 70°, high near 79°.

Tuesday - Mostly sunny with one or two brief showers... Winds moderate to strong northwesterly... Low near 70°, high near 79°.

[Hyperstorm]

Update:

NHC finally noticing the feature and it should become Nicole soon. My original thinking remains the same...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082118
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY
FORMED TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF BRONWSVILLE TEXAS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON MATTHEW ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[James]

Seems like we may be entering a brief flurry of activity.