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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004
ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGES CONFIRM WHAT WAS SUSPECTED JUST AFTER
RELEASE OF THE MORNING ADVISORY PACKAGE WAS RELEASED...THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED FROM
THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THAT AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED...AND KAY IS NOW A SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL WITH A FEW NEW
CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT ARE BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST...SHOWING NO CHANGE OVER
THE PERIOD...REFLECTS THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER KAY WILL
REGENERATE OR DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT KAY WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGER AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS WEATHER AREA HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
INITIAL MOTION IS WNW AT 10-11 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND PRESUMES THAT KAY...IF IT
SURVIVES...WILL BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 15.2N 116.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 15.6N 118.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 15.7N 120.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 15.8N 121.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 15.9N 123.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 16.0N 127.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 132.5W 30 KT
Wow Kay only lasted 6 hours as strong shear was the cause of it to weaken.Now it will be absorbed by the disturbance in front.
