On Monday on TWC Tropical forum, I posted my Ivan landfall forecast but neglected to post it here. I've had fair success with my Charley and Frances landfall forecast. I've been off the mark in intensity forecast though.
Ivan should continue on a slightly north of due west track for the next several days being influenced by a ridge to his north. As Ivan reachs the mid Caribbean Ivan should track south of Hispanola possibly crossing Jamacia. Ivan will cross Cuba, pass near the Keys or South Florida and enter the GOM. Ivan will eventually make landfall in the Florida Panhandle or Alabama coast. Intensity forecast is a little tougher. Ivan should pass thourgh the Leewards as a Cat 3. As Ivan approaches Jamacia Ivan will be a Cat 2/3. After crossing Cuba Ival will be a Cat 1/2. Approaching the northern Gulf Coast Ivan will be a Cat 2/3.
Reasoning for intensity forecast is the ULL to Ivan's west which might create some searing effects and land interaction.....MGC
Ivan landfall forecast.....
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MGC
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Ivan landfall forecast.....
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