Ivan Thoughts...

[MWatkins]

Overall Ivan has jumped back on track with a move to the NNW today. Despite the intense debate from some that the movement has been closer to 305 or so...the TPC themselves indicated an initial motion of 330...or NNW in the most recent advisory. This of course does not bode well for residents of far western Cuba...but it does seem to spare residents of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The overall guidance envelope continues to shift westward...however...the forecast track from the TPC remains on the eastern side of the envelope...probably due to the motion we have seen in the last several hours.

The trough currently over the central Gulf should lift out and allow some ridging to build back in over Florida. This will nudge the hurricane back to the north-west for the early portion of the forecast period...thereafter...it should turn back to the north and even the northeast prior to landfall.

Although no one along the northern Gulf coast should let their guard down yet...it's finally time for some specifics from me....so...

Greatest Concern: Between 87W and 88W (Mobile and Pensacola).
Almost as High concern: Between 87W and 85.5W
Not as high but still high: Between 90W and 88W

So...based on this I'm expecting a landfall between 85.5W and 90W...with the highest risk of a landfall nearest to Pensacola...just east of Mobile.

If this NNW trend continues then the concern shifts to the right some...but this is what I think as of now.

Of course...residents near New Orleans...Gulf Port and other places along the NE Gulf should not ignore that this is a large hurricane that has not been very well behaved.

MW

[yoda]

Good post...

Are you saying we should spank Ivan for not being well behaved Mike?

[caneman]

Good post...

Are you saying we should spank Ivan for not being well behaved Mike?

I think Ivan is the spanker.

[cycloneye]

Mike what about the intensity.How strong you see Ivan making landfall?

[Downdraft]

Camille a CAT 5 storm did not behave as predicted, Andrew a CAT 5 storm did not behave as predicted, Gilbert a CAT 5 storm did not behave as predicted. What makes anyone think Ivan will? I have no idea where it's going to go but until it's over land and dissipating I'm not ruling anything out.

[dixiebreeze]

Good post, Mike, but the 5 p.m. NHC Discussion is pretty darn scary for those of us on the Fla. gulf coast N. of Tampa. If the mets are trending east now, I fear that will only expand when Ivan reaches the N. Gulf.

[Ixolib]

Camille a CAT 5 storm did not behave as predicted, Andrew a CAT 5 storm did not behave as predicted, Gilbert a CAT 5 storm did not behave as predicted. What makes anyone think Ivan will? I have no idea where it's going to go but until it's over land and dissipating I'm not ruling anything out.

Given the erratic behaviorial tendencies of those four storms, has anyone put them all together to come up with any general, but obvious, trends?

[sunny]

Thank you for your insight, Mike. I feel a wee bit better now!

CS

[Cape Verde]

Camille a CAT 5 storm did not behave as predicted, Andrew a CAT 5 storm did not behave as predicted, Gilbert a CAT 5 storm did not behave as predicted. What makes anyone think Ivan will? I have no idea where it's going to go but until it's over land and dissipating I'm not ruling anything out.

<P>I'm with that sentiment. Ivan hasn't done anything it was predicted more than a day in advance to do.<P>Heck, it was supposed to hit Hispaniola and be broken apart. It was supposed to cross over the island of Jamaica. It was supposed to hit Havana. It was supposed to go NE of the Caymans.<P>Gimme a break.<P>If it's now going to obey the forecasts of the NHC, it will be a first.

[mpetre]

Nice accurate forecast!