9 PM - NHC - Still 135 / 931

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al79philly
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9 PM - NHC - Still 135 / 931

#1 Postby al79philly » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:56 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html
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Scorpion

#2 Postby Scorpion » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:57 pm

I guess thats because of the recon report. Wait until they get into the NE quad.
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yoda
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Re: 9 PM - NHC - Still 135 / 931

#3 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:58 pm

al79philly wrote:http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html


You beat me to it! :roflmao:
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Sanibel
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#4 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:04 pm

I'm sorry but major hurricanes do not take perfect form, red donut core, drop 9 millibars, and not increase windspeed.

Something's not right here...
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Scorpion

#5 Postby Scorpion » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:08 pm

Yes something is definitely wrong, especially considering the fact that it looked like complete rags this morning and now takes on a shape it had entering the GOM. A wind increase is already taking place, but I doubt it will be much. Maybe 140-145. 150 is the highest I would go.
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yoda
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#6 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:09 pm

Forseen an increase in winds at 11 PM advisory I have. Winds will be at 140 mph, yes yes.
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Cape Verde
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#7 Postby Cape Verde » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:15 pm

Sanibel wrote:I'm sorry but major hurricanes do not take perfect form, red donut core, drop 9 millibars, and not increase windspeed.

Something's not right here...
<P>Yes, it would be nice to have accurate information, but I don't think it matters in a practical sense. Nobody is going to nail extra plywood up based on new information tonight. <P>I hope people planned for a major hurricane and decided whether to evacuate or not on the same information.
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#8 Postby calidoug » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:23 pm

The pressure dropped BUT the eye diameter grew a lot earlier today. That prevents the winds from being as high as you would otherwise expect with that pressure.

Should the eye contract, and the pressure stay that low, you'd find higher winds.
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clueless newbie
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#9 Postby clueless newbie » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:31 pm

Hm, I suspect the explanation is rather straightforward.

In the morning, the structure was bad and pressures high, but the speeds were rather high because of inertia. After that the winds fell but the structure started to improve and pressures fell, so the NHC posted higher winds then were supported by the recon - because they saw that soon the winds might get high again. Now the winds notched a bit, to match the NHC posted speeds. The pressure is not falling anymore and actually Ivan seems to be weakening again. The winds are still probably rather high (135-140mph, NOT 150+), because of inertia and because Ivan does not look THAT bad yet. We can expect SLOW weakening now.
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cccmachine
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#10 Postby cccmachine » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:58 pm

Still 100+ miles off shore.Damn you Ivan
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dennis1x1

#11 Postby dennis1x1 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:19 pm

yep...still never a report by recon that ivan has ever grown into the 135mph official advisory.......recon has consistently been 125-130...
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