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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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addictedfisher18
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 20
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 3:42 pm
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Stormcenter
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6685
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Read this and calm down. Please note the part about a gradual turn.
Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 51a
Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on September 15, 2004
...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the
northern Gulf Coast...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to
Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and
Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City
Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to
Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours.
At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated
near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles
south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual
turn to the north is expected today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan
remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours.
Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least
category three.
Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds
extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east
of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds
are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path
of Ivan.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced
where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are
already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf
Coast...and will be increasing today.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely
elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 am CDT.
Forecaster Avila
Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 51a
Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on September 15, 2004
...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the
northern Gulf Coast...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to
Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and
Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City
Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to
Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours.
At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated
near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles
south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual
turn to the north is expected today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan
remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours.
Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least
category three.
Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds
extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east
of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds
are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path
of Ivan.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced
where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are
already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf
Coast...and will be increasing today.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely
elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 am CDT.
Forecaster Avila
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windsurfertx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6
- Joined: Sun Jun 29, 2003 11:52 am
- Location: Nassau Bay, Texas
Where's the warm water eddy?
Do any of ya'll have that link to the warm water eddy image in the G.O.M. It was South east of N.O. I saw it a couple of days ago, but can't find it now. It was quite impressive, and I've been wondering what Ivan would do when encountering it.
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Chilly_Water
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 191
- Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:59 pm
- Location: Charleston, SC
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vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 29133
- Age: 74
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Cypress, TX
- Contact:
As Ivan encounters the warm water eddy just to his North Ivan could easily intensify some more and probably will unless there are other conditions I am not aware of that would impact him negatively.
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Possum Trot
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 187
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:33 pm
- Location: Ozarks Bioregion, Missouri, USA
Re: Where's the warm water eddy?
windsurfertx wrote:Do any of ya'll have that link to the warm water eddy image in the G.O.M. It was South east of N.O. I saw it a couple of days ago, but can't find it now. It was quite impressive, and I've been wondering what Ivan would do when encountering it.
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averag ... 4_mult.png
https://www.navo.navy.mil/cgi-bin/graph ... 19/0-0-5/0
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html
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