TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004
OBSERVATIONS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT IVAN IS MAINTAINING 120 KT...CAT. 4...INTENSITY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GPS DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA
G-IV JET INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AS WELL. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE CORE WILL PASS OVER SOME HIGHER
HEAT CONTENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE
COAST...A SHALLOWER LAYER OF WARM WATERS AND SOME INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR COULD CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING. HOWEVER...WE
EMPHASIZE THAT IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS
HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0233.shtml?
